Estimation of Unwanted Fertility

不需要的生育力的估计

• 批准号: 7187377
• 负责人: JOHN B CASTERLINE
• 金额: $ 7.04万
• 依托单位: PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY, THE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-03-01 至 2008-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7187377
• 关键词: Africa; Asia; Attitude; Birth; Child; Classification; Cognitive; Computer software; Conceptions; Confidence Intervals; Country; Cross-Sectional Studies; Data; Defect; Demographic Survey; Demographic and Health Surveys; Development; Disputes; Drug Formulations; Economics; Failure; Family Planning Program Evaluation; Family Planning Programs; Fertility; Fertility Rates; Household; Individual; Internet; Investments; Latin America; Literature; Low income; Measurement; Measures; Mental Health; Methodology; Methods; Names; Nature; Numbers; Outcome; Output; Paper; Performance; Personal Satisfaction; Phase; Policies; Population Policies; Pregnancy; Procedures; Program Evaluation; Public Domains; Purpose; Range; Relative (related person); Research; Sampling Errors; Surveys; Techniques; Time; Uncertainty; Unwanted pregnancy; Validity and Reliability; Variant; Wrestling; concept; deoxyhypusine synthase; desire; expectation; human capital; mortality; peer; preference; school health; stem; success; trend

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The estimation of unwanted fertility is a major objective of demographic surveys, including DHS surveys conducted in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Levels and trends in unwanted fertility are important input to the formulation of population policy and the evaluation of family planning program performance. Unwanted fertility is posited to have multiple consequences at levels ranging from the societal down to the pregnancy/child, although the nature and magnitude of such consequences remains an active topic of research. Yet existing methods for estimating unwanted fertility are known to be defective, among other reasons because they rely on attitudinal data whose validity and reliability are suspect. The proposed research will develop and apply a new estimator of unwanted fertility - the "two-survey estimator", so-named because in its basic form it draws on data from two successive cross-sectional surveys. This estimator relies on the fertility attitude regarded by most scholars as most trustworthy, namely the stated preference for another child at the time of the survey. Under reasonable assumptions, the two-survey estimator should produce less biased estimates of unwanted fertility than the most widely used existing methods. The new estimator has the limitation of producing only aggregate-level estimates, but such estimates are the primary datum for policy formulation and program evaluation. In the first phase of this project, a basic version of the two-survey estimator will be implemented. Subsequently, extensions of the basic estimator will be developed that will make it applicable to a diverse range of data circumstances (including, its name notwithstanding, a one-survey version of the two-survey estimator) and that will yield output that is either more accessible to a broad audience (unwanted TFRs) or more acceptable to a technical audience (confidence intervals for the two-survey estimates). In the final phase of the project, the new estimator will be applied to the full body of DHS data (a maximum of 200 surveys), generating revised estimates of unwanted fertility for 42 countries (or, if the one-survey version functions as expected, estimates for as many as 70 countries). Output from the project will include: a paper presenting the methodology; revised estimates of unwanted fertility for a large number of countries and historical periods, posted on the Web and analyzed in a second paper; and, finally, software in the public domain that implements the method.

描述（由申请人提供）：估计意外生育是人口调查的一个主要目标，包括在亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲进行的人口与健康调查。意外生育的水平和趋势是制定人口政策和评估计划生育方案执行情况的重要投入。意外生育被认为会在从社会到怀孕/生育的各个层面产生多种后果，尽管这种后果的性质和程度仍然是一个活跃的研究课题。然而，据知，估计意外生育的现有方法存在缺陷，原因之一是这些方法依赖的态度数据的有效性和可靠性令人怀疑。拟议的研究将开发和应用一种新的意外生育估计数-“两次调查估计数”，之所以这样命名，是因为其基本形式利用了两次连续的横断面调查的数据。这一估计数依赖于大多数学者认为最值得信赖的生育态度，即在调查时表示的对另一个孩子的偏好。在合理的假设下，两次调查估计数应比最广泛使用的现有方法产生更少的偏差估计意外生育。新的估计量的局限性，只产生总体水平的估计，但这样的估计是政策制定和项目评估的主要数据。在该项目的第一阶段，将实施两次调查估计量的基本版本。随后，将开发基本估计量的扩展，使其适用于各种数据情况（尽管其名称，包括两次调查估计量的一次调查版本），并且将产生更容易获得的输出。广大受众（不需要的TFR）或技术受众更容易接受（两次调查估计的置信区间）。在该项目的最后阶段，新的估计数将应用于人口与健康调查的全部数据（最多200次调查），产生42个国家的意外生育订正估计数（或者，如果一次调查的版本如预期那样发挥作用，多达70个国家的估计数）。该项目的产出将包括：一份介绍方法的文件;许多国家和历史时期的意外生育订正估计数，张贴在网上，并在第二份文件中进行分析;最后，公共领域的软件将执行该方法。