Indices of Exposure and Vulnerability for Predicting Alcohol-Related Problems

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DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This Small Grant Research Award (R03) application requests two years of support for secondary data analysis to develop indices of regional and personal exposure and vulnerability that can be used in the longitudinal study of determinants of early alcohol use and alcohol-related problems. Though research on risk factors for alcohol abuse is common, this research and the models it generates are not well integrated. We know little about the interaction between exposure and vulnerability and less about the relative influence of risk factors measured within different contexts (e.g., at regional, macro levels and personal, micro levels). The integration of models of risk and vulnerability at macro- and micro- levels can lead to deeper understanding of the interactions between risk factors and more effective treatment and prevention of alcohol-related problems. The proposed research program will a) develop both regional and personal theoretical models that measure exposure to alcohol-using opportunities and vulnerability to early alcohol use and the development of alcohol- related problems; b) test those models and their ability to predict alcohol using behaviors in a longitudinal sample of adolescents; and c) use the findings from those tests to expand and refine the models. Because these models are specific to the development of early alcohol use and alcohol-related problems, the ideal sample is a population at risk for initiating alcohol using behaviors adolescents in the period between middle school and high school. Therefore, the proposed research study will use a well-established longitudinal data set of adolescent substance use to develop and test the models of exposure and vulnerability. These initial tests and findings, which this R03 will support, will lead to the development of an R01 application to further advance the quantification, application, evaluation, and enhancement of a comprehensive model of risk for alcohol-related problems. Such a quantifiable model can provide standardized measures of exposure and vulnerability that can be compared across regions and individuals and used to better target prevention and intervention efforts.Project Narrative This project will develop indices of regional and personal exposure and vulnerability that can be used to advance our understanding of the interactive role of community level and individual level risk factors in the development of alcohol-related problems. This advanced understanding can lead to more focused targets for prevention and intervention.