PROPENSITY TO FLY: THE DEVELOPMENT OF STATED CHOICE MODELS FOR AIR TRAVEL

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Individuals are flying more than ever before and over greater distances. The boom in low-cost airlines such as Ryanair and easyJet has made air travel more affordable and is stimulating leisure and increasingly, business demand. The research focus is on the general public and the choices they make when deciding whether to fly or not. For instance, if air fares rise by 20%, but the time taken to reach the airport falls by 10%, would an individual still choose to fly for a particular journey?The overall goal of the research is to assess the propensity, or likelihood, of individuals to fly. It concerns the development of stated choice models to assess the propensity to fly, and how this propensity varies across different segments of the population. Data for these modelling and segmentation tasks will largely come from a questionnaire survey of individual flying preferences. Data will be collected from over 1,000 residents of the East Midlands region, in which Nottingham East Midlands airport is located. Questions in the survey will concern socio-economic information, access to airports, flight history and attitudes towards air travel. In addition, a series of stated preference questions will be included, in which respondents will make hypothetical choices of whether to fly or not for specified leisure trips using low-cost airlines.The project will deliver a stated choice modelling capability and a greater understanding of air travel market segments. Such findings will be of benefit to aviation policy-makers, as they consider air travel demand forecasting and future airport capacity. Airlines and regional airports will also be beneficiaries, particularly those interested in the demand for air travel in the East Midlands region.