Developmental Evaluation of Prevention Effects of the SAFE Children Intervention

描述（由申请人提供）：随着有效的药物滥用风险预防干预措施的增加，预防研究人员对改进和阐述他们对干预效果的理解越来越感兴趣。除了记录干预组和对照组之间的平均结果差异外，研究人员对更好地了解长期（远端）干预效果与即时（近端）干预效果之间的关系越来越感兴趣。目前的建议是将这一观点应用于评估一个两阶段、有效的预防性干预（SAFE Children方案）的长期影响（到16岁），该方案提供给居住在高风险（市中心）社区的家庭，其中有一个孩子进入小学。通过扩展数据收集和进行这些额外的数据分析，我们的目的是将干预效果作为发育变化进行建模，以帮助更详细地了解预防影响。通过建立原始抽样和之前的9个数据点，我们有四个具体目标：(1)估计安全儿童I和II干预措施在减少物质使用的可能性、物质使用的程度和第一次使用物质的年龄方面的总体长期效果（在16岁时）；(2)研究早期干预效果与长期预后的关系；(3)检验条件和特征、预先存在的干预与干预的初始（近端）和长期（远端）效果的关系，检验干预期间的环境和事件与初始和长期效果的关系，检验干预后的行为状态和条件和事件对近期和长期效果关系的影响；(4)记录该城市样本中物质使用的发展轨迹，包括识别与反社会/犯罪行为和学业失败相关的轨迹，然后测试安全儿童I和II干预措施对这些轨迹中成员分布的影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): As the roster of efficacious preventive interventions for drug abuse risk grows, prevention researchers have become increasingly interested in refining and elaborating their understanding of intervention effects. In addition to documenting average outcome differences between intervention and control groups researchers are increasingly interested in better understanding how long term (distal) intervention effects are related to immediate (proximal) intervention effects. The present proposal is to apply this perspective to evaluating the long term impact (to age 16) of a two-stage, efficacious, preventive intervention (the SAFE Children program) offered to families residing in high risk (inner-city) communities, with a child entering elementary school. Our intent, in extending data collection and conducting these additional data analyses, is to model intervention effects as developmental alteration to help provide a more elaborate understanding of prevention impact, By building upon the original sampling and 9 previous points of data, we have four specific aims: (1) to estimate the overall long term effects (at age 16) of the SAFE Children I and II interventions for reducing the likelihood of substance use, the extent of substance use, and the age of first substance use; (2) to examine the relation between early intervention effects and long-term outcomes; (3) to test the relations of conditions and characteristics, pre-existing intervention, to initial (proximal) and long-term (distal) effects of the intervention, to test the relations of circumstances and events during the intervention to initial and long-term effects, and to test for the influence of post-intervention behavioral status and conditions and events on the relation between immediate and long-term effects; and (4) to document the developmental trajectories for substance use among this inner-city sample, including identification of trajectories related to antisocial/delinquent behavior and academic failure, and to then test for effects of the SAFE Children I and II interventions on distribution in membership across these trajectories.