The Development of a Local Urban Climate Model and its Application to the Intelligent Development of Cities (LUCID)

该项目将开发世界领先的方法来计算城市环境中的当地温度和空气质量。然后将探讨气候变化对能源使用的影响和对健康的影响。我们会详细考虑对城市规划的影响。适用于城市地区的这种方法将极大地有助于在规划过程中产生指导意见，而且这种模型被认为对于估计和预测从目前不适当的做法向更可持续的城市社区的过渡至关重要。人们压倒性地一致认为气候正在变暖，而且越来越多的人认识到，现在作出的决定需要参考当地气候将如何变化。目前对英国的预测是，夏天更长、更热，冬天更潮湿、更多风，到本世纪80年代，东南部将变暖2.5摄氏度到4摄氏度。这种巨大的变化，特别是在夏天，将导致建筑物内过热的普遍程度大大增加。预计夏季湿度也会增加，限制了通过自然通风为建筑物降温的能力。夏季气温超过30摄氏度的频率将增加，与之相关的城市热岛效应将导致频繁的极端温度，特别是在大城市地区。适应和改善这种危险的条件，需要适当的城市规划、住房和交通政策，这些条件的致命影响最近已经经历过，例如1995年的芝加哥、2001年的希腊和2003年的法国。但在制定这些政策之前，需要量化工具来确定和量化缓解和适应战略的有效性。死亡率的增加显然是气温上升的极端后果。然而，很明显，人们感到“不舒服”的时间比例有可能增加。这增加了大量使用机械冷却系统的可能性，并随之而来的是能源使用量的增加，特别是在城市地区。与城市热岛相关的更高温度预计会使情况变得更糟。特别是，建筑被动降温的一种策略是白天在建筑结构内储存热量，晚上通过通风降温。但这种方法依赖于夜间温度足够低。城市热岛通常在夜间最明显，因此了解这种方法是否仍然可行是很重要的。建筑既是对当地小气候的反应，也是对当地小气候的贡献。有效的建筑设计需要对这种微气候有一定的了解和处理方法。未来的道路是什么？目前，已有方法来估计城市地区过高温度的广泛程度(例如Oke，1987)，也有一些测量运动(例如Graves等人2001年；Wilby 2003年)，但还没有既定的实用方法或工具来评估地方规划决策(土地使用、建筑布局方向和设计、开放空间或公园的大小)对当地气候细节的影响。然后，这个项目将开发和测试最先进的方法来计算城市环境中的当地气候。然后将探讨对内部建筑环境、能源使用和对健康的影响。这项建议汇集了一个由气象学家、建筑科学家、城市模型师、规划师、城市和建筑设计师以及流行病学家组成的新联盟，研究城市如何适应不断变化的气候。该提案有效地将两个联盟/模型开发人员和模型用户/以最连贯的方式团结在一起。

This project will develop world leading methods for calculating local temperature and air quality in the urban environment. The impact on energy use and the consequences for health of a changing climate will then be explored. The implications for urban planning will be considered in detail. Such methods applied to urban areas would contribute greatly to the generation of guidance in planning process and such modelling is seen as essential to estimate and predict the transition from the present unsuitable practices to more sustainable urban communitiesThere is overwhelming consensus that the climate is warming and an increasing recognition that decisions made now need to be informed by how the local climate will change. Current projections for the UK are for longer, hotter summers and wetter, windier winters, with the South-East warming by between 2.5oC and 4 oC by the 2080s. A change of this magnitude, particularly in summer will lead to much increased prevalence of overheating inside buildings. Humidity is also predicted to increase during the summers limiting the ability to cool buildings through natural ventilation. The frequency of summer days when there are very warm temperatures above 30oC will increase and associated urban heat island effects will lead to frequent extreme temperatures especially in large urban areas. Adapting to and ameliorating such dangerous conditions, whose deadly affects have recently been experienced, for instance in Chicago in 1995, in Greece in 2001 and in France in 2003, will require appropriate policies of urban planning, housing and transport. But before these policies can be developed, quantitative tools are required to identify and quantify the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation strategies.Increased mortality clearly represents an extreme consequence of rising temperatures. However, it is clear that the proportion of the time that people will feel 'uncomfortable' has the potential to increase. This raises the possibility of a large increase in the use of mechanical cooling systems and a consequent rise in energy use, particularly in urban areas. Higher temperatures associated with the urban heat island are expected to make things worse. In particular, one strategy for passive cooling of buildings is through storing heat within the building fabric during the day and cooling through ventilation at night. But this method relies on the night time temperatures being sufficiently low. The urban heat island is typically most pronounced at night, and so it is important to know whether or not this method remains viable. Buildings both respond to and contribute to the local microclimate. Effective building design requires a knowledge of, and ways of dealing with, this microclimate. What is the way ahead? Currently, methods exist to estimate the broad magnitude of excess temperatures in urban areas (e.g. Oke, 1987), and there have been some measurement campaigns (e.g. Graves et al 2001; Wilby 2003), however there are no established practical methods or tools for assessing the impact of local planning decisions (land use, building-layout orientation and design, size of open spaces or parks) on the fine details of the local climate. This project then will develop and test state-of-the-art methods for calculating local climate in the urban environment. The impact on the internal built environment, energy use and the consequences for health will then be explored. The implications for urban planning will be considered in detail.This proposal brings together a new consortium of meteorologists, building scientists, urban modellers, planners, urban and building designers and epidemiologists to research how cities can adapt to a changing climate. The proposal effectively unites two consortia / model developers and model users / in a most coherent manner.