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PP3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODEL AND COMMUNITY IMPACT SIMULATORS

PP3 社会经济模型和社区影响模拟器

基本信息

批准号：
EP/F037716/1
负责人：
Gwilym Pryce
金额：
$ 33.55万
依托单位：
University of Glasgow
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2008
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2008 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FF037716%2F1
关键词：
PP3 SOCIO ECONOMIC MODEL COMMUNITY

项目摘要

There is currently no coherent research structure in place to enable stakeholders to ascertain the full impact of EWEs (extreme weather events) on housing, employment, SMEs, crime, health and emergency services at the local level. While there is now a considerable body of research that has examined the socio-economic impacts of flooding and other weather event outcomes, the existing work either tends to be too narrow in focus (such as the cost of insurance claims), pitched at a macro scale (at the National or European level, for example), limited to the immediate effects of the event (such as insurance claims), or primarily qualitative or descriptive in nature. There is a very real need, therefore, to develop an integrated model that will facilitate the quantitative analysis of extreme weather events at a community level (such as postcode or postcode sector level); consider the direct impacts on a range of sectors; consider the interconnectedness of these sectors and hence the indirect impacts of an extreme weather event; and consider lagged effects as well as the contemporaneous effects. The goal of this project is to develop an empirical model in conjunction with stakeholders that will meet these requirements and provide stakeholders with an integrated decision making framework that will enable them to explore short and long term EWE scenarios.

目前没有一个连贯的研究结构，使利益攸关方能够确定极端天气事件对地方一级住房、就业、中小企业、犯罪、卫生和紧急服务的全面影响。虽然现在有相当多的研究已经审查了洪水和其他天气事件后果的社会经济影响，但现有工作要么往往过于狭隘，（如保险索赔的成本），在宏观范围内定位（例如，在国家或欧洲层面），仅限于事件的直接影响（如保险索赔），或主要是定性或描述性的。因此，非常真实的需要开发一个集成模型，以促进社区层面（例如邮政编码或邮政编码部门层面）极端天气事件的定量分析;考虑对一系列部门的直接影响;考虑这些部门的相互关联性，从而考虑极端天气事件的间接影响;并考虑滞后效应以及同期效应。本项目的目标是与利益相关者一起开发一个经验模型，以满足这些要求，并为利益相关者提供一个综合决策框架，使他们能够探索短期和长期的EWE方案。