Immigration, Emigration, and Age-by-Country Structure of Mexican Cohort Lifetimes

描述（由申请人提供）：这项研究的部分动机是解决移民对人口老龄化的影响问题的人口模型的假设与美国最大的移民贡献国墨西哥的移民过程的经验证据之间存在很大的差异。人口模型的性质是，它们假定移民在接受国定居。关于墨西哥的现有经验证据是，大量移民没有在美国定居，而是返回墨西哥。然而，这一证据并非来自具有国家代表性的数据来源。这项研究的目的首先是提高对美国-墨西哥双向移民的年龄和性别模式的理解，其次是提高对墨西哥出生的移民在美国与墨西哥的老龄化模式的影响的理解。该研究的主要方法创新是使用来自美国和墨西哥的数据源来估计移民到美国的比率和移民到墨西哥的回报率。这些数据来源是1990年和2000年的人口普查以及美国和墨西哥从20世纪90年代到21世纪中期进行的大规模家庭调查。结合这些数据源作为输入参数估计的移民率，使用寿命表模型来推导墨西哥出生的队列在美国和墨西哥的居住年龄。这直接解决了墨西哥移民在美国和墨西哥的年龄可能有多大的问题。在何种程度上，最近的移民流从墨西哥越来越平衡的性别，因此更有可能留在美国进入老年，通过比较移民的年龄和性别在20世纪80年代末，90年代末，并通过到2000年代中期的模式进行评估。移民按教育程度的选择性是在移民和移民流动中估计的。墨西哥出生的移民谁留在美国进入老年的教育选择性，然后分析作为一个功能的选择性在移民和选择性的过程中返回移民。这项研究是更广泛地了解移民对美国人口年龄、性别和社会经济结构影响的第一步，因此也是对美国支持具有更大健康需求的老年人口的能力的第一步。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This research is in part motivated by the very large discrepancy between the assumptions of the demographic models addressing the question of the effect of immigration on population aging and the empirical evidence about the migration processes of the US's single largest immigrant- contributing country, Mexico. The nature of the demographic models is that they assume that immigrants settle in the receiving country. The available empirical evidence with regard to Mexico is that large numbers of immigrants do not settle in the US, and instead return to Mexico. This evidence, however, does not come from nationally representative data sources. The study aims first to improve understanding of the age and gender patterns of US-Mexico migration in both directions, and second to improve understanding of their consequences for Mexican-born immigrants' patterns of aging in the US versus in Mexico. The major methodological innovation of the study is its use of data sources from both the US and Mexico together to estimate both rates of immigration to the US and rates of return emigration to Mexico. These data sources are the 1990 and 2000 censuses and the large-scale household surveys conducted in both the US and Mexico from the 1990s through to the mid-2000s. With the migration rates estimated by combining these data sources as input parameters, a life table model is used to derive Mexican-born cohorts' ages of residence in the US and in Mexico over the lifetime. This directly addresses the question of to what extent Mexican immigrants are likely to age in the US versus in Mexico. The extent to which more recent migrant streams from Mexico are becoming increasingly balanced by gender, and consequently more likely to remain in the US into older ages, is evaluated by comparing the patterns of migration by age and gender in the late 1980s, late 1990s, and through to the mid-2000s. The selectivity of migrants by educational attainment is estimated in both immigrant and emigrant flows. The educational selectivity of Mexican-born immigrants who remain in the US into old age is then analyzed as a function of both selectivity in the process of immigration and selectivity in the process of return migration. The study is a first step towards developing a broader understanding of the impact of immigration on the age, sex, and socio-economic structure of the US population, and thus also on the US's ability to support an older population with greater health needs.