Immigration, Emigration, and Age-by-Country Structure of Mexican Cohort Lifetimes

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究的部分动机是解决移民对人口老龄化影响问题的人口模型假设与美国最大移民来源国墨西哥移民过程的经验证据之间存在巨大差异。人口模型的本质是假设移民在接收国定居。关于墨西哥，现有的经验证据表明，大量移民没有在美国定居，而是返回墨西哥。然而，这一证据并非来自具有全国代表性的数据来源。这项研究的目的首先是提高对美国和墨西哥移民的年龄和性别模式的理解，其次是提高对墨西哥出生的移民在美国和墨西哥的老龄化模式的影响的理解。该研究方法上的主要创新之处在于，它同时使用了来自美国和墨西哥的数据来源，以估计美国的移民率和墨西哥的移民回归率。这些数据来源是1990年和2000年的人口普查，以及从1990年代到2000年代中期在美国和墨西哥进行的大规模家庭调查。结合这些数据源作为输入参数估计的迁移率，使用生命表模型来推导墨西哥出生的队列在美国和墨西哥的一生居住年龄。这直接解决了墨西哥移民在美国和墨西哥可能在多大程度上变老的问题。通过比较20世纪80年代末、90年代末和21世纪头十年中期的年龄和性别移民模式，可以评估来自墨西哥的新移民在多大程度上正变得越来越性别平衡，从而更有可能留在美国养老。根据教育程度对移民的选择性在移民和移民流动中都进行了估计。然后分析了墨西哥出生的移民在老年时留在美国的教育选择性，作为移民过程中的选择性和返回移民过程中的选择性的函数。这项研究是更广泛地了解移民对美国人口的年龄、性别和社会经济结构的影响的第一步，因此也对美国支持有更大健康需求的老年人口的能力产生了影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This research is in part motivated by the very large discrepancy between the assumptions of the demographic models addressing the question of the effect of immigration on population aging and the empirical evidence about the migration processes of the US's single largest immigrant- contributing country, Mexico. The nature of the demographic models is that they assume that immigrants settle in the receiving country. The available empirical evidence with regard to Mexico is that large numbers of immigrants do not settle in the US, and instead return to Mexico. This evidence, however, does not come from nationally representative data sources. The study aims first to improve understanding of the age and gender patterns of US-Mexico migration in both directions, and second to improve understanding of their consequences for Mexican-born immigrants' patterns of aging in the US versus in Mexico. The major methodological innovation of the study is its use of data sources from both the US and Mexico together to estimate both rates of immigration to the US and rates of return emigration to Mexico. These data sources are the 1990 and 2000 censuses and the large-scale household surveys conducted in both the US and Mexico from the 1990s through to the mid-2000s. With the migration rates estimated by combining these data sources as input parameters, a life table model is used to derive Mexican-born cohorts' ages of residence in the US and in Mexico over the lifetime. This directly addresses the question of to what extent Mexican immigrants are likely to age in the US versus in Mexico. The extent to which more recent migrant streams from Mexico are becoming increasingly balanced by gender, and consequently more likely to remain in the US into older ages, is evaluated by comparing the patterns of migration by age and gender in the late 1980s, late 1990s, and through to the mid-2000s. The selectivity of migrants by educational attainment is estimated in both immigrant and emigrant flows. The educational selectivity of Mexican-born immigrants who remain in the US into old age is then analyzed as a function of both selectivity in the process of immigration and selectivity in the process of return migration. The study is a first step towards developing a broader understanding of the impact of immigration on the age, sex, and socio-economic structure of the US population, and thus also on the US's ability to support an older population with greater health needs.