Understanding uncertainty in simulations of THC-related rapid climate change.

了解与 THC 相关的快速气候变化模拟中的不确定性。

• 批准号: NE/C522268/1
• 负责人: Jonathan Gregory
• 金额: $ 41.44万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2006 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FC522268%2F1
• 关键词: Understanding; uncertainty; simulations; THC; related

The main tools that are used for making projections of climate change in the coming century resulting from greenhouse-gas and other emissions are detailed coupled three-dimensional models of the atmosphere and ocean. However, such models give widely different results for some important aspects of climate change, thus limiting our ability to make practically useful projections. One such aspect is changes that may happen in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation, often referred to as the Gulf Stream. This circulation transports a great deal of heat northwards. If it weakened, future warming in Europe in particular could be reduced or possibly reversed. The spread of model results basically reflects limitations in current understanding of how the large-scale climate system operates. The aim of this project is to identify which are the most important aspects of that uncertainty by making comparisons of the responses simulated by a range of climate models. The results are intended to help improve the models by focusing attention on the aspects which require further theoretical or observational study.

用于预测温室气体和其他排放物在下一个世纪造成的气候变化的主要工具是大气和海洋的详细三维耦合模型。然而，这些模型对气候变化的某些重要方面给出了截然不同的结果，从而限制了我们做出实际有用预测的能力。其中一个方面是大西洋温盐环流可能发生的变化，通常被称为墨西哥湾流。这个环流把大量的热量向北输送。如果它减弱，特别是欧洲未来的变暖可能会减少或逆转。模式结果的传播基本上反映了目前对大尺度气候系统如何运作的理解的局限性。该项目的目的是通过对一系列气候模式模拟的反应进行比较，确定哪些是这种不确定性的最重要方面。这些结果旨在通过关注需要进一步理论或观测研究的方面来帮助改进模型。

项目成果

Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0921-0
• 发表时间: 2011-10-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Edwards, Neil R.;Cameron, David;Rougier, Jonathan
• 通讯作者: Rougier, Jonathan

A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0630-8
• 发表时间: 2010-10
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: P. Holden;N. Edwards;K. Oliver;T. Lenton;R. Wilkinson

The Sensitivity of a Coupled Climate Model to Its Ocean Component

耦合气候模型对其海洋成分的敏感性

• DOI: 10.1175/2010jcli3394.1
• 发表时间: 2010
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Sinha B

High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

大西洋经向翻转环流的高频变化

• DOI: 10.5194/osd-8-219-2011
• 发表时间: 2011
• 作者: Balan Sarojini B