Modelling ice-sheets, climate and sea-level during the last glacial cycle

模拟末次冰川周期期间的冰盖、气候和海平面

• 批准号: NE/I011099/1
• 负责人: Jonathan Gregory
• 金额: $ 49.36万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI011099%2F1
• 关键词: Modelling; ice; sheets; climate; sea

The repeated formation, advance, retreat and disappearance of ice-sheets is the defining characteristic of the glacial cycles of the last million years. At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21,000 years ago, the extensive Northern Hemisphere ice-sheets had a major influence on global and regional climate, and global-mean sea-level was 120 m lower than present, mainly due to the much greater mass of water stored in ice on land. Ice-sheets and climate interact strongly. Ice-sheets are very sensitive to climate change through its effect on snowfall and melting. They feed back on regional and global climate change through several mechanisms; for instance, sunlight is reflected by the snow and ice, surface temperature is cooled by raised elevation, and meltwater running off the ice-sheet into the sea may influence ocean circulation. The enormous and complex changes in climate and ice-sheets which take place during glacial cycles are not understood in several important respects or in detail. Explaining them is an exciting intellectual challenge of Earth system science. The effect of anthropogenic climate change on the ice-sheets of Greenland and Antarctica could produce changes in global-mean sea-level of many metres over future centuries, with severe impacts on coastal populations and ecosystems. On the longer term, if climate change were reversed, the ice-sheets might regrow. Contemporary observations alone give us insufficient knowledge of the relevant processes to make reliable predictions, because changes during the relatively well-observed last century have been relatively small. Therefore the record of the larger natural variations that occur during glacial cycles is a crucial source of information about how ice-sheets may respond to and influence climate change in the future. The aim of this project is to investigate the co-evolution of the climate and the Northern Hemisphere ice-sheets during the last glacial cycle. For the first time we will do this using the type of climate model used for detailed future climate projections, coupled to a detailed ice-sheet model. The focus is on analysis of changes simulated by these computer models, which we compare with observational data. The intended outcomes will be (i) simulations of the last glacial cycle with a much more physically complete model than has been used before, including a quantification of the effect of model systematic uncertainty on the results; (ii) a consequent improvement in scientific understanding of ice-sheet change and its interaction with climate on timescales of centuries to millennia; (iii) an improved capability for modelling ice-sheet changes that will result from anthropogenic climate change. This has obvious practical socio-economic relevance, since we want to be able to make predictions for the future.

冰盖的反复形成、前进、后退和消失是过去百万年冰川循环的决定性特征。在21，000年前的末次盛冰期（LGM），广泛的北方冰盖对全球和区域气候产生了重大影响，全球平均海平面比现在低120米，这主要是由于陆地上冰中储存的大量水。冰盖和气候相互作用强烈。冰盖通过影响降雪和融化对气候变化非常敏感。它们通过几种机制反馈区域和全球气候变化;例如，阳光被冰雪反射，表面温度因海拔升高而降低，融化的水从冰盖流入海洋可能影响海洋环流。在冰川循环期间发生的气候和冰盖的巨大而复杂的变化在几个重要方面或细节上都没有得到理解。解释它们是地球系统科学的一个令人兴奋的智力挑战。人类活动造成的气候变化对格陵兰和南极冰盖的影响可能在今后几个世纪内使全球平均海平面发生数米的变化，对沿海人口和生态系统产生严重影响。从长远来看，如果气候变化逆转，冰盖可能会重新生长。仅凭当代的观测，我们对相关过程的了解还不足以做出可靠的预测，因为在观测相对较好的上个世纪，变化相对较小。因此，冰川循环期间发生的较大自然变化的记录是关于冰盖如何应对和影响未来气候变化的重要信息来源。该项目的目的是调查末次冰期循环期间气候和北方冰盖的共同演变。我们将首次使用用于详细预测未来气候的气候模型，再加上详细的冰盖模型。重点是分析这些计算机模型模拟的变化，我们与观测数据进行比较。预期的成果将是：㈠用比以前使用的物理上更完整的模型模拟最后一次冰期循环，包括量化模型系统不确定性对结果的影响; ㈡因此提高对冰盖变化及其在几百年至几千年时间尺度上与气候相互作用的科学认识;提高模拟人为气候变化造成的冰盖变化的能力。这具有明显的实际社会经济意义，因为我们希望能够对未来作出预测。

项目成果

The last glacial cycle: transient simulations with an AOGCM

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1283-y
• 发表时间: 2012-01
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Robin S. Smith;J. Gregory

Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet

• DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020
• 发表时间: 2020-12-01
• 期刊: CRYOSPHERE
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Gregory, Jonathan M.;George, Steven E.;Smith, Robin S.
• 通讯作者: Smith, Robin S.

Modelling large-scale ice-sheet-climate interactions following glacial inception

模拟冰川开始后大规模冰盖与气候的相互作用

• DOI: 10.5194/cp-8-1565-2012
• 发表时间: 2012
• 期刊: Climate of the Past
• 影响因子: 4.3
• 作者: Gregory J

FAMOUS version xotzt (FAMOUS-ice): a general circulation model (GCM) capable of energy- and water-conserving coupling to an ice sheet model

FAMOUS 版本 xotzt (FAMOUS-ice)：大气环流模型 (GCM)，能够与冰盖模型节能节水耦合

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-5769-2021
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Geoscientific Model Development
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: Smith R

FAMOUS version xotzb (FAMOUS-ice): a GCM capable of energy- and water- conserving coupling to an ice sheet model

FAMOUS 版本 xotzb (FAMOUS-ice)：能够与冰盖模型节能节水耦合的 GCM

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2020-207
• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Smith R