Uncertainty quantification for adaptive surrogate modeling framework using CFD simulations****

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The goal of this project is to develop a probabilistic framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation for surrogate models generated to emulate the expensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver incorporated in a physics-based life cycle management expert system (LCM-ES) framework called XactLIFE (TM) developed in-house by the industrial partner (LPTi- Life Prediction Technologies Inc.). LPTi provides prognostics based life cycle management services for gas turbine engine parts utilizing the XactLIFE system. As part of a new product offering to their clients, LPTi aims to custom build the XactLIFE system for specific engines with preselected critical parts. This would need the substitution of the CFD solver present in the XactLIFE system with surrogate models to achieve real-time simulation and to avoid the need for embedding expensive CFD solver in the customized engine specific XactLIFE systems. As an integral part of the engineering software, XactLIFE needs to provide the users with quantitative modeling uncertainties for the developed surrogate models. Toward this goal, an efficient methodology for uncertainty quantification and propagation for surrogate modeling framework will be developed by the research team from the University of Waterloo in close collaboration with the technical experts from the industrial partner. Uncertainty quantification will provide confidence levels on the reliability of the prediction results for aging engine health and provide more accurate predictive maintenance recommendations leading to lower emissions, reduction in wastage of spare parts by taking optimal corrective actions. This research project will significantly impact the capability and range of application for the XactLIFE system in terms of its efficient and cost-effective applications to various industries for predictive maintenance of engine components. The success of this project will enable the industrial partner to create new source of revenue generation and reach out to new clientele.**