Uncertainty quantification for adaptive surrogate modeling framework using CFD simulations****

该项目的目标是开发一个概率框架，用于不确定性量化和代理模型的传播，以模拟昂贵的计算流体动力学（CFD）求解器，该计算流体动力学（CFD）求解器集成在一个基于物理的生命周期管理专家系统（LCM-ES）框架中，该框架名为XactLIFE (TM)，由工业合作伙伴（LPTi- life Prediction Technologies Inc.）内部开发。LPTi利用XactLIFE系统为燃气涡轮发动机部件提供基于预测的生命周期管理服务。作为向客户提供新产品的一部分，LPTi旨在为特定发动机定制XactLIFE系统，并预选关键部件。这就需要用代理模型替代XactLIFE系统中的CFD求解器，以实现实时仿真，并避免在定制引擎特定的XactLIFE系统中嵌入昂贵的CFD求解器。作为工程软件的一个组成部分，XactLIFE需要为用户提供已开发代理模型的定量建模不确定性。为了实现这一目标，滑铁卢大学的研究小组将与工业伙伴的技术专家密切合作，开发一种有效的不确定性量化和代理建模框架传播的方法。不确定性量化将为老化发动机健康状况预测结果的可靠性提供置信水平，并提供更准确的预测性维护建议，从而通过采取最佳纠正措施降低排放，减少备件浪费。该研究项目将显著影响XactLIFE系统的能力和应用范围，使其在各种行业中高效、经济地应用于发动机部件的预测性维护。该项目的成功将使工业合作伙伴能够创造新的收入来源，并接触到新的客户

The goal of this project is to develop a probabilistic framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation for surrogate models generated to emulate the expensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver incorporated in a physics-based life cycle management expert system (LCM-ES) framework called XactLIFE (TM) developed in-house by the industrial partner (LPTi- Life Prediction Technologies Inc.). LPTi provides prognostics based life cycle management services for gas turbine engine parts utilizing the XactLIFE system. As part of a new product offering to their clients, LPTi aims to custom build the XactLIFE system for specific engines with preselected critical parts. This would need the substitution of the CFD solver present in the XactLIFE system with surrogate models to achieve real-time simulation and to avoid the need for embedding expensive CFD solver in the customized engine specific XactLIFE systems. As an integral part of the engineering software, XactLIFE needs to provide the users with quantitative modeling uncertainties for the developed surrogate models. Toward this goal, an efficient methodology for uncertainty quantification and propagation for surrogate modeling framework will be developed by the research team from the University of Waterloo in close collaboration with the technical experts from the industrial partner. Uncertainty quantification will provide confidence levels on the reliability of the prediction results for aging engine health and provide more accurate predictive maintenance recommendations leading to lower emissions, reduction in wastage of spare parts by taking optimal corrective actions. This research project will significantly impact the capability and range of application for the XactLIFE system in terms of its efficient and cost-effective applications to various industries for predictive maintenance of engine components. The success of this project will enable the industrial partner to create new source of revenue generation and reach out to new clientele.**