Changing coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability

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In 2005, severe flooding in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina focussed the world's attention on the importance of accurate knowledge of the topography of the coastal zone in natural disaster management and prediction. The topography of the sea floor, generally known as the bathymetry, evolves over time as sediment is eroded, transported and deposited by water action. The change in bathymetry itself changes the motion of the water, which is also influenced by tides and weather patterns, such as storm surges. An accurate, up-to-date knowledge of coastal bathymetry would allow improved flood forecasting. Improved prediction of future bathymetry, and knowledge of the uncertainty in that prediction, would allow construction of better sea defences, better management of coastal habitats, and better understanding of the effects of changes in land use near the coast. It may also provide better understanding of the effects of climate change (e.g. sea level rise, and increased numbers of extreme storm events) on the longer-term evolution of an estuary. Coastal sediment transport models are becoming increasingly sophisticated. However, observed bathymetric samples typically only provide partial coverage of the domain of such a model. Hence, initialisation of such models using only a set of recent observations is not feasible. The effective and efficient use of limited data, such as these, requires state-of-the-art mathematical, statistical and computational methods, known as data assimilation techniques. Data assimilation combines empirical observations with model predictions to give more accurate and well-calibrated forecasts and enables the uncertainties in the forecasts to be calculated. Whilst data assimilation has been in use in the context of atmospheric and oceanic prediction for some years, its use in the context of coastal sediment modelling is novel. This project will use data assimilation techniques with a coastal sediment transport model to maintain up-to-date near-shore bathymetry, predict future bathymetry, answer statistical questions regarding uncertainty and predictability, gain insight into physical processes taking place during intense storm events and to design an optimal observation strategy for coastal monitoring. Three coastal sites have been identified for numerical experiments. Methodologies will be developed and tested using data from the first site and validated using independent data from the other sites, demonstrating the wider applicability of ideas. The novel use of data assimilation will allow improved estimates of the current bathymetry, and improved predictions of future bathymetry via better initialisation, error estimates for the improved bathymetry, and a means to estimate model parameters from indirect observations. The direct involvement of the Environment Agency in the project will ensure that the resulting benefits are transferred into operational practice.