Predicting the impacts and consequences of climate change on global fish production

预测气候变化对全球鱼类生产的影响和后果

• 批准号: NE/F001525/1
• 负责人: Manuel Barange
• 金额: $ 4.9万
• 依托单位: National Oceanography Centre
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2007 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FF001525%2F1
• 关键词: Predicting; impacts; consequences; climate; change

Climate change (CC) is accelerating and is already affecting marine ecosystems and their services. Coupled climate models and ocean observations indicate that the world's oceans are warming, resulting in changes in oceanic stratification, circulation patterns, sea ice and light supply to the surface ocean. While biological responses to these effects are visible, there is an increasing demand for information on the expected global impact of CC on the productivity of marine ecosystems. We know that primary production is likely to increase globally, and that ocean warming and changes in currents will continue causing distributional and phenological changes in plankton and fish populations. However, our understanding of how these processes translate into fish production scenarios, and our estimation of the risks and vulnerabilities of these for human societies, is constrained by: a) Difficulties of downscaling GCMs to the scales of biological relevance, b) Lack of ecosystem models capable of capturing biological processes at the right scale, c) Uncertainties over future global aquatic net primary production, and the transfer of this through the food web,, d) Inadequate methodology to estimate human vulnerabilities, and, e) The multiple additional stressors affecting fish populations, including country-specific exploitation patterns and policies. In this proposal we propose to investigate how CC scenarios would affect the potential production for global fisheries resources in the future, compared with past and present scenarios, and estimate the added vulnerability of these changes to human societies at national and global scale. The work will rely on state-of-the-art modelling approaches. We will use the QUEST ES Model coupled with physical forcing scenarios based on GCOMS, a model that couples the shelf seas ecosystems to the global ocean, to quantify physical forcing. POLGCOMS, a three-dimensional coastal-ocean regional ecosystem model will be used to estimate ecosystem dynamics up to plankton levels in selected Large Marine Ecosystems (LME). The following scenarios will be considered: pre-industrial (1800), present (2005), and future (2050 and 2100). We will then develop applications to estimate potential fish production changes based on three approaches: statistical relationships between primary production and fish abundance or/and catch, metabolic scaling theory combined with primary production estimates and metabolic scaling combined with ecosystem-specific predator-prey ratios. We will also investigate the consequences of climate-driven changes on the global markets of fishmeal for aquaculture and animal feeds through an integrated bio-economic model of the global fishery system. Specific supply-demand scenarios will be considered, based on climate forcing and global market trends, with particular emphasis on the ecological and economic viability of fishmeal replacement in the Scottish aquaculture industry (as a case study). Finally, we propose to investigate the risks and vulnerability of the impacts of CC on fish-producing countries. This analysis will be conducted in the context of an assessment of climate-driven change in fisheries productivity at national level (by disaggregating LME-information) and globally. The information will be based on both the ecosystem-estimated potential fish productivity in the scenarios described above and on fishmeal market scenarios. Such vulnerability scenarios will build on existing Theme 3 QUEST funded proposals by adding six further developments of the vulnerability assessment framework. Overall the project will provide us with a better understanding of the changes in potential marine ecosystem production from pre-industrial to future times, and the consequences of such changes for the vulnerability of human societies.

气候变化正在加速，并已影响到海洋生态系统及其服务。气候模型和海洋观测相结合表明，世界海洋正在变暖，导致海洋分层、环流模式、海冰和海洋表层光照供应发生变化。虽然对这些影响的生物反应是可见的，但人们越来越需要关于气候变化对海洋生态系统生产力的预期全球影响的信息。我们知道，全球初级生产可能会增加，海洋变暖和洋流变化将继续导致浮游生物和鱼类种群的分布和物候变化。然而，我们对这些过程如何转化为鱼类生产情景的理解，以及我们对人类社会风险和脆弱性的估计，受到以下因素的限制：（a）难以将大气环流模型缩小到与生物相关的尺度，（B）缺乏能够在适当尺度上捕捉生物过程的生态系统模型，（c）对未来全球水生物净初级生产力的认识不足，（d）评估人类脆弱性的方法不足，（e）影响鱼类种群的多种额外压力因素，包括各国特有的开发模式和政策。在本提案中，我们建议调查气候变化情景与过去和现在的情景相比，将如何影响未来全球渔业资源的潜在产量，并估计这些变化在国家和全球范围内对人类社会的额外脆弱性。这项工作将依靠最先进的建模方法。我们将使用QUEST ES模型结合基于GCOMS的物理强迫情景，GCOMS是一种将陆架海生态系统与全球海洋耦合的模型，以量化物理强迫。POLGCOMS是一个三维沿海-海洋区域生态系统模型，将用于估计某些大型海洋生态系统中浮游生物水平的生态系统动态。将考虑以下情景：工业化前（1800年），现在（2005年）和未来（2050年和2100年）。然后，我们将开发应用程序，估计潜在的鱼类产量变化的基础上三种方法：初级生产和鱼类丰度或/和渔获量之间的统计关系，代谢缩放理论结合初级生产估计和代谢缩放结合生态系统特定的捕食者-猎物比。我们还将通过全球渔业系统的综合生物经济模型，调查气候变化对全球水产养殖和动物饲料鱼粉市场的影响。将根据气候强迫和全球市场趋势考虑具体的供需情景，特别强调苏格兰水产养殖业鱼粉替代品的生态和经济可行性（作为案例研究）。最后，我们建议调查气候变化对鱼类生产国影响的风险和脆弱性。这项分析将在评估国家一级（通过分列大型海洋生态系统信息）和全球一级气候驱动的渔业生产力变化的背景下进行。这些信息将以上述情景中生态系统估计的潜在鱼类生产力和鱼粉市场情景为基础。这些脆弱性情景将在现有专题3 QUEST资助的提案的基础上，增加脆弱性评估框架的六个进一步发展。总的来说，该项目将使我们更好地了解从工业化前到未来时期潜在海洋生态系统生产的变化，以及这种变化对人类社会脆弱性的影响。