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Climate change and macroecological patterns in an exploited marine fish assemblage

气候变化和被开发的海洋鱼类群落的宏观生态模式

基本信息

批准号：
NE/F001878/1
负责人：
Martin Genner
金额：
$ 28.27万
依托单位：
University of Bristol
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2008
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2008 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FF001878%2F1
关键词：
Climate change macroecological patterns exploited

项目摘要

There is considerable uncertainly regarding the influence of climate change on structure of marine fish assemblages, yet increasing evidence suggests that maintenance of diversity across trophic levels is key to safeguarding ecosystem function. We propose to investigate climatic influence on spatial and temporal structure of the northeast Atlantic marine demersal fish assemblage. Using collated data from UK government survey trawls, we aim to 1) investigate whether there is a northeast Atlantic signature of diversity change linked to temporal climatic variability, and whether temporal changes in community composition have been of the same magnitude across the region. 2) test if individual species show similar abundance trends throughout their geographic ranges, and identify ecological and life-history species traits linked to temporal changes of abundance, including body size, growth rates and trophic level and 3) test the reliability of 'climate-envelope' predictions of future species distributions and abundances, and compare these to predictions made using models incorporating density-dependent habitat choice. Our goal is to identify the scales for patterns of change in species abundance and to quantify uncertainties underpinning predictions of ecological change during forecasted 2 to 4 C rises in mean annual sea surface temperature over the next 100 years.

气候变化对海洋鱼类群落结构的影响有相当大的不确定性，但越来越多的证据表明，维持营养水平上的多样性是保障生态系统功能的关键。我们建议研究气候对东北大西洋海洋底层鱼类群落的时空结构的影响。利用英国政府调查拖网的整理数据，我们的目标是：1)调查东北大西洋是否存在与气候时间变化有关的多样性变化的特征，以及群落组成的时间变化在整个地区是否具有相同的幅度。2)测试单个物种在其地理范围内是否表现出类似的丰度趋势，并确定与丰度时间变化有关的生态和生活史物种特征，包括个体大小、生长速度和营养水平；3)测试对未来物种分布和丰度的“气候包络”预测的可靠性，并将这些预测与纳入依赖密度的栖息地选择的模型所作的预测进行比较。我们的目标是确定物种丰度变化模式的规模，并量化支持对未来100年海洋表面平均温度上升2至4摄氏度的预测的生态变化预测的不确定性。