Adjoint sensitivity of sea-level and inter-basin transports to surface forcing and circulation anomalies in present and future climates

当前和未来气候中海平面和流域间输送对地表强迫和环流异常的伴随敏感性

• 批准号: NE/F00236X/1
• 负责人: David Marshall
• 金额: $ 52.41万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2008 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FF00236X%2F1
• 关键词: Adjoint; sensitivity; sea; level; inter

Sea level rise is one of the few undisputed elements of future climate change to which we are already committed regardless of future emissions scenario. Projections for regional sea level change over the next century are similar in magnitude to those for global sea level rise. Yet there are wide discrepancies between model projections of its pattern, amplitude and the underlying causes. The broad aim of this project is to determine the sensitivities of regional sea level changes, and associated changes in ocean circulation, to surface fluxes of heat, freshwater and momentum, to remote circulation anomalies, and to uncertain model parameters. These sensitivities will be determined for both the present climate and various future climate scenarios. We will use a state of the art ocean model and its so-called 'adjoint' to efficiently determine these sensitivities. In contrast to traditional modelling studies, in which a large number of experiments must be performed to determine the sensitivity of a model output to model inputs, the adjoint model provides each of these sensitivities from just a single model run. The project is timely in that it addresses key issues identified in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change report, released last month, concerning uncertainties in projections of sea level change and circulation. It also draws on the expertise and success that the team has built up in using the ocean model and its adjoint through a current NERC-funded project to attribute changes observed in the overturning circulation in the Atlantic to local and remote surface forcing.

海平面上升是未来气候变化的少数几个无可争议的因素之一，无论未来的排放情况如何，我们都已经致力于解决这一问题。对下一个世纪区域海平面变化的预测与对全球海平面上升的预测在幅度上相似。然而，各种模型对危机模式、程度和根本原因的预测存在很大差异。该项目的主要目的是确定区域海平面变化和海洋环流的相关变化对地表热量、淡水和动量通量、远程环流异常和不确定模型参数的敏感性。这些敏感性将根据当前气候和各种未来气候情景来确定。我们将使用最先进的海洋模型及其所谓的“伴随”来有效地确定这些敏感性。与传统的建模研究，其中大量的实验必须进行，以确定模型输出的模型输入的灵敏度，伴随模型提供了这些灵敏度从一个单一的模型运行。该项目是及时的，因为它涉及上个月发表的政府间气候变化专门委员会报告中确定的关于海平面变化和环流预测的不确定性的关键问题。它还利用了该团队通过当前NERC资助的项目使用海洋模型及其伴随模型所建立的专业知识和成功，将大西洋翻转环流中观察到的变化归因于当地和远程表面强迫。

项目成果

Momentum Balance of the Wind-Driven and Meridional Overturning Circulation

风动与经向翻转环流的动量平衡

• DOI: 10.1175/2010jpo4528.1
• 发表时间: 2011
• 期刊: Journal of Physical Oceanography
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Marshall D

Basinwide Integrated Volume Transports in an Eddy-Filled Ocean

• DOI: 10.1175/2009jpo4185.1
• 发表时间: 2009-12-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Kanzow, T.;Johnson, H. L.;Johns, W. E.
• 通讯作者: Johns, W. E.

Propagation of Meridional Circulation Anomalies along Western and Eastern Boundaries

经向环流异常沿西部和东部边界的传播

• DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-13-0134.1
• 发表时间: 2013
• 期刊: Journal of Physical Oceanography
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Marshall D

The Combined Effect of Tidally and Eddy-Driven Diapycnal Mixing on the Large-Scale Ocean Circulation

• DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-11-0122.1
• 发表时间: 2012-04-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Saenko, Oleg A.;Zhai, Xiaoming;Lee, Warren G.
• 通讯作者: Lee, Warren G.

Vertical eddy energy fluxes in the North Atlantic subtropical and subpolar gyres

• DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-12-021.1
• 发表时间: 2013-01
• 期刊: Journal of Physical Oceanography
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Xiaoming Zhai;D. Marshall