Applications of Multi-Criteria Optimization (AMCO) to Cancer Simulation Modeling

描述(由申请人提供)：癌症筛查计划越来越多地使用模拟模型进行评估，因为它们允许卫生政策制定者考虑由于实际、经济或伦理原因而无法通过随机临床试验评估的情景。然而，这些模型中很少使用严格的数学方法进行模型校准。根据现有的临床数据对癌症筛查模拟模型进行校准是进行准确模型预测的关键。申请人的近期目标是适应、推广和促进多准则优化技术的使用，以改进用于癌症筛查政策预测和规划的模拟模型的校准。申请者钟贤刚博士是麻省总医院技术评估研究所(ITA)的资深科学家，也是哈佛医学院的讲师。他接受过物理学(BS)和聚合物科学与工程(PHD)方面的培训。这项拟议的研究旨在利用他在物理科学方面的计算机建模背景以及在ITA的大量模拟项目来测试他的假设，以改进使用多准则优化技术的癌症筛查模型的设计和构建。研究计划的具体目标是：(1)采用多准则优化，为模型校准提供自动化程序。例如，优化算法将应用于ITA现有的两个微观模拟模型：肺癌政策模型(LCPM)和结直肠癌模拟模型(SimCRC)，并进行评估；(2)扩大多准则优化技术的使用，以帮助设计模型中的底层癌症生物学组件，并提高计算速度；(3)在癌症筛查建模师中推广多准则优化技术的使用。适应和推广这些技术的经验将发展成一个带有教学图表、教程和软件模块的校准平台，将在互联网和科学会议上分发。建议项目的最终结果将提高校准过程和模拟模型本身的速度。拟议的培训计划包括指导、课程作业和职业发展活动，为他承担拟议的研究和完全过渡到癌症模拟建模领域做好准备。这一拟议项目的研究和培训将在G·斯科特·加泽尔博士的指导下进行，加泽尔博士是国际知名的癌症结果研究和决策分析科学专家。申请者的长期职业目标是成为开发最先进的疾病建模模拟方法的领导者。这一奖项将促进申请人的学术生涯，并帮助他实现成为一名富有成效的独立调查人员的目标。 公共健康相关性：这项研究与公共健康相关，因为它提高了癌症筛查、政策预测和规划模拟模型的准确性。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Cancer screening programs are increasingly evaluated with simulation models because they allow health policy makers to consider scenarios that could not be evaluated by randomized clinical trials for practical, financial or ethical reasons. However, few of these models employ rigorous mathematical methods for model calibration. Calibration of cancer screening simulation models to existing clinical data is vital to accurate model prediction. The applicant's immediate goal is to adapt, extend, and promote the use of multi-criteria optimization techniques to improve the calibration of simulation models for cancer screening policy prediction and planning. The applicant, Chung Yin Kong, PhD, is a senior scientist at the Massachusetts General Hospital's Institute for Technology Assessment (ITA) and an instructor at Harvard Medical School. He is trained in Physics (BS) and Polymer Science and Engineering (PhD). This proposed research is tailored to utilize his computer modeling background in physical science as well as the numerous simulation projects at the ITA to test his hypotheses for improving the design and construction of cancer screening models with multi-criteria optimization techniques. The specific aims of the research plan are: (1) to adapt multi-criteria optimization to provide automated procedures for model calibration. As an example, optimization algorithms will be applied to and evaluated with two existing microsimulation models at the ITA: the Lung Cancer Policy Model (LCPM) and the Simulation Model of Colorectal Cancer (SimCRC) model; (2) to extend the use of multi-criteria optimization techniques to aid the design of the underlying cancer biology components in the models and to improve computational speed; (3) to promote the use of multi-criteria optimization techniques among cancer screening modelers. The experience of adapting and extending these techniques will be developed into a calibration platform with instructional diagrams, tutorials, and software modules, which will be distributed on the Internet and at scientific conferences. The end results of the proposed project will improve the speed of both the calibration process and the simulation models themselves. The proposed training plan includes mentoring, coursework, and career development activities preparing him to undertake the proposed research and to fully-transition into the field of cancer simulation modeling. The research and training of this proposed project will be performed under the mentorship of Dr. G. Scott Gazelle, an internationally known expert in cancer outcome research and decision analysis science. The applicant's long term career goal is to become a leader in developing state-of-the-art simulation methods for disease modeling. This award will advance the applicant's academic career and help him to achieve his goal to be a productive, independent investigator. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This research is relevant to public health because it improves the accuracy of simulation models for cancer screening policy prediction and planning.