Probabilistic Population Projections for All Countries

所有国家的概率人口预测

• 批准号: 8219222
• 负责人: ADRIAN E RAFTERY
• 金额: $ 30.44万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-03-01 至 2017-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8219222
• 关键词: AIDS/HIV problem; Accounting; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Adult; Age; Climate; Communicable Diseases; Computer software; Country; Data; Demographic Impact; Development; Disease; Epidemic; Federal Government; Female; Fertility; Fertility Rates; Force of Gravity; Future; Goals; Government; Grant; International; International Migrations; Joints; Life Expectancy; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Outcome; Pattern; Policies; Policy Making; Population; Population Projection; Prevalence; Private Sector; Procedures; Process; Publishing; Recommendation; Research Personnel; Statistical Methods; System; UNICEF; Uncertainty; United Nations; Update; Work; World Health Organization; base; climate change; cost; male; migration; mortality; sex; sexually active

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The United Nations publishes updated estimates and projections of the populations of all the world's countries, broken down by age and sex. These are widely used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers, for example for climate modeling and for assessing progress towards the Millenium Development Goals. The UN's current projections are deterministic, but assessing uncertainty about population estimates and projections is important for policy-making and other purposes. We propose to develop a fully probabilistic population projection methodology. We will develop methods for probabilistic projection of fertility and mortality, taking account of within-country and between-country correlations. We will develop methods for probabilistic projection of international migration. We will develop methods for probabilistic population projections in countries with generalized sexually transmitted infectious disease epidemics, which require special methods because the demographic impact of such diseases is massive and different from most other diseases, being concentrated among the least vulnerable parts of the population, namely young sexually active adults. We will develop methods for reconstructing past populations with uncertainty from fragmentary data. We will produce publicly available software for implementing the new methods. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Every two years, the United Nations produces projections of the populations of all countries, which are widely used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers. The UN's current projections are deterministic, but assessing uncertainty about future population is important for policy-making and other purposes. We propose to develop a fully probabilistic population methodology which will be applicable to all countries, and will also be useful for assessing global concerns, such as climate change and progress towards the Millenium Development Goals.

描述（由申请人提供）：联合国公布了世界各国按年龄和性别分列的最新人口估计和预测。这些被国际组织、政府、私营部门和研究人员广泛使用，例如用于气候建模和评估实现千年发展目标的进展。联合国目前的预测是确定性的，但评估人口估计和预测的不确定性对决策和其他目的很重要。我们建议开发一个完全概率的人口预测方法。我们将制定生育率和死亡率的概率预测方法，同时考虑到国家内部和国家之间的相关性。我们将制定国际移徙的概率预测方法。我们将在性传播传染病普遍流行的国家制订人口概率预测方法，这需要特别的方法，因为这种疾病对人口的影响是巨大的，与大多数其他疾病不同，集中在人口中最不脆弱的部分，即性行为活跃的年轻成年人。我们将开发方法重建过去的人口与不确定性从零碎的数据。我们将制作公开可用的软件来实施新方法。 公共卫生关系：联合国每两年对所有国家的人口进行一次预测，这些预测被国际组织、政府、私营部门和研究人员广泛使用。联合国目前的预测是确定性的，但评估未来人口的不确定性对决策和其他目的很重要。我们提议制定一个完全概率性的人口方法，该方法将适用于所有国家，也将有助于评估全球关切的问题，如气候变化和实现千年发展目标的进展情况。