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Statistical Methods for Population Projections

人口预测的统计方法

基本信息

批准号：
10192523
负责人：
ADRIAN E RAFTERY
金额：
$ 36.24万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2012-03-01 至 2024-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Project Summary The United Nations publishes updated estimates and projections of the populations of all the world's countries, broken down by age and sex. These are widely used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers, for example for climate modeling and for assessing progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. The UN's previous projections were deterministic, and under the previous grant, we developed a fully probablistic projection methodology, which was adopted by the UN for its official projections for all countries in 2015. The new projections changed the understanding of the outlook for population, indicating that stabilization of world population is unlikely this century, largely because of the slowdown in fertility decline in high-fertility countries. We will improve our methodology by taking account of generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics. We will also develop new methods that account for the evolution of smoking, a major factor for mortality. Our methods are based on estimates of past population and vital rates, but these have measurement error, particularly in the more than half of countries without good vital registration system, We will extend our methods to take account of measurement error in estimating past fertility rates. We will also assess the possible effects on fertility of major policy initiatives focused on child survival, girl's education, family planning and the status of women in high fertility countries We will produce publicly available software for implementing our new methods. We will also conduct training courses and continue to maintain an email list for users of the methods.

项目概要联合国发布了所有地区人口的最新估计和预测世界各国，按年龄和性别细分。这些被国际上广泛使用组织、政府、私营部门和研究人员，例如气候领域的组织、政府、私营部门和研究人员建模并评估实现可持续发展目标的进展。联合国的之前的预测是确定性的，在之前的资助下，我们开发了一个完全概率预测方法，被联合国用于其官方预测 2015 年所有国家的经济前景都发生了变化。新的预测改变了人们对经济前景的理解。人口，这表明本世纪世界人口不太可能稳定，很大程度上因为高生育率国家的生育率下降速度放缓。我们将考虑到普遍的艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行情况来改进我们的方法。我们将还开发了新方法来解释吸烟的演变，吸烟是死亡率的一个主要因素。我们的方法基于对过去人口和生命率的估计，但这些已经测量误差，特别是在一半以上没有良好生命登记的国家系统，我们将扩展我们的方法，在估计过去时考虑测量误差生育率。我们还将评估重大政策举措对生育可能产生的影响重点关注儿童生存、女童教育、计划生育和妇女地位生育率国家我们将开发公开可用的软件来实施我们的新方法。我们还将开展培训课程并继续为该方法的用户维护电子邮件列表。