Statistical Methods for Population Projections

人口预测的统计方法

• 批准号: 9753757
• 负责人: ADRIAN E RAFTERY
• 金额: $ 37.09万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-03-01 至 2022-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9753757
• 关键词: AIDS/HIV problem; Adopted; Adult; Affect; Age; Cause of Death; Child; Climate; Communities; Computer software; Country; Curiosities; Data; Demographic Impact; Education; Educational workshop; Electronic Mail; Epidemic; Evolution; Family Planning; Family Planning Programs; Federal Government; Fertility; Fertility Rates; Future; Goals; Government; Grant; International; Measurement; Methodology; Methods; Modeling; Pattern; Policies; Policy Making; Population; Population Projection; Private Sector; Procedures; Publishing; Recommendation; Research; Research Personnel; Risk Factors; Science; Scientist; Smoking; Statistical Methods; Sustainable Development; System; Training; Uncertainty; United Nations; Universities; Update; Washington; Women Status; Work; World Health Organization; base; climate change; falls; girls; improved; middle age; mortality; sex; smoking prevalence; success

Project Summary The United Nations publishes updated estimates and projections of the populations of all the world's countries, broken down by age and sex. These are widely used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers, for example for climate modeling and for assessing progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. The UN's previous projections were deterministic, and under the previous grant, we developed a fully probablistic projection methodology, which was adopted by the UN for its official projections for all countries in 2015. The new projections changed the understanding of the outlook for population, indicating that stabilization of world population is unlikely this century, largely because of the slowdown in fertility decline in high-fertility countries. We will improve our methodology by taking account of generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics. We will also develop new methods that account for the evolution of smoking, a major factor for mortality. Our methods are based on estimates of past population and vital rates, but these have measurement error, particularly in the more than half of countries without good vital registration system, We will extend our methods to take account of measurement error in estimating past fertility rates. We will also assess the possible effects on fertility of major policy initiatives focused on child survival, girl's education, family planning and the status of women in high fertility countries We will produce publicly available software for implementing our new methods. We will also conduct training courses and continue to maintain an email list for users of the methods.

项目摘要 联合国公布了对所有非洲国家人口的最新估计和预测， 按年龄和性别分列的世界各国。国际上广泛使用 组织、政府、私营部门和研究人员，例如气候 建模和评估实现可持续发展目标的进展。联合国的 以前的预测是确定性的，在以前的资助下，我们开发了一个完整的 概率预测方法，这是由联合国通过其官方预测， 2015年所有国家。新的预测改变了对未来前景的理解， 这表明，在本世纪，世界人口不太可能稳定下来， 因为高生育率国家的生育率下降速度放缓。 我们将改进我们的方法，考虑到艾滋病毒/艾滋病的普遍流行。我们将 还开发新的方法来解释吸烟的演变，吸烟是死亡的一个主要因素。 我们的方法是基于对过去人口和生命率的估计，但这些都 计量误差，特别是在半数以上没有良好生命登记的国家 系统，我们将扩展我们的方法，以考虑测量误差估计过去 生育率我们亦会评估主要政策措施对生育率可能造成的影响 重点是儿童生存、女童教育、计划生育和妇女在高等教育中的地位。 生育率国家 我们将制作公开可用的软件来实现我们的新方法。我们还将 举办培训班，并继续为这些方法的使用者保留一份电子邮件名单。