Extreme Heat and Human Health: Characterizing Vulnerability in a Changing Climate

极端高温与人类健康：描述气候变化中的脆弱性

• 批准号: 8148057
• 负责人: ROGER PENG
• 金额: $ 23.4万
• 依托单位: JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-01 至 2013-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8148057
• 关键词: Accounting; Affect; Age; Agreement; Air Pollutants; Air Pollution; Allergens; Biological; Biological Factors; Biometry; Blood Vessels; Cardiovascular system; Case-Control Studies; Climate; Communities; Data Base Management; Databases; Disease; Droughts; Economic Factors; Educational Status; Elderly; Engineering; Environmental Epidemiology; Environmental Risk Factor; Epidemiologic Studies; Floods; Foundations; Frequencies; Future; Geographic Locations; Goals; Health; Health Status; Heat Waves; Heating; Heterogeneity; Human; Individual; Intervention; Length; Link; Location; Lung diseases; Maps; Methodology; Modeling; Modification; Morbidity - disease rate; Output; Ozone; Particulate Matter; Pattern; Population; Population Study; Poverty; Predisposition; Public Health; Public Health Practice; Relative (related person); Risk; Risk Estimate; Risk Factors; Rodent; Science; Seasons; Severities; Signal Transduction; Site; Source; Statistical Models; Structure; Surface; Temperature; Time; Time Series Analysis; Vulnerable Populations; Weather; anthropogenesis; base; climate change; clinical practice; design; evidence base; greenhouse gases; high risk; improved; interest; models and simulation; mortality; novel; pollutant; population health; socioeconomics; therapy design; vector

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Evidence of human-caused climate change over the past 50 years has been well documented. Global surface temperature has increased approximately 0.70 C over the past 50 years and much of that increase can be attributed to anthropogenic sources. Climate change is anticipated to affect human health largely by changing the distribution of known risk factors such as extreme heat episodes, floods, droughts, air pollution and aero-allergens, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. In particular, an expected increase in the frequency, intensity, and severity of extreme heat episodes, will likely have a profound impact on the public's health. Changes in the levels of air pollutants such as particulate matter and ozone can potentially exacerbate the already severe effects of heat. Designing interventions and mitigation strategies to protect the public's health will require first developing a clear understanding of how extreme heat episodes affect mortality and morbidity and identifying populations that are most vulnerable. This project will be an applied study focused on the effects of climate change- induced extreme heat on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the US elderly population (age > 65 years). Our goals are to (1) conduct a national study of the cardiovascular mortality and morbidity effects of extreme heat episodes in a vulnerable population (the elderly); (2) evaluate the extent to which biological, socio-economic, and environmental factors modify vulnerability to extreme heat; and (3) estimate the impact on cardiovascular mortality and morbidity of future extreme heat episodes using temperature projections from the most up-to- date global climate model simulations for the 2020-2100 time period under a range of assumptions about pollutant emissions, population health, population age structure, climate adaptation, and climate modeling approaches. This project brings together a multi-disciplinary team with expertise in biostatistics, environmental epidemiology, atmospheric science, engineering, large database management, and climatology. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: One of the more robust signals of future climate change is the occurrence of more severe heat- related extremes, such as increases in the length, frequency, and intensity of heat waves under any scenario of greenhouse gas concentrations. This project will improve both public health and clinical practice by rigorously quantifying the effects of biological, environmental, and socio- economic factors that make individuals and populations more vulnerable to extreme heat. By providing broad-based evidence of the modifying effects of these factors, findings from the project will serve as the scientific foundation for designing targeted interventions to protect vulnerable groups.

描述（由申请人提供）：过去 50 年来人为造成的气候变化的证据已有详细记录。过去 50 年来，全球地表温度上升了约 0.7℃，其中大部分上升可归因于人为因素。预计气候变化将主要通过改变已知风险因素的分布来影响人类健康，例如极端高温、洪水、干旱、空气污染和空气过敏原以及媒介和啮齿动物传播的疾病。特别是，极端高温事件的频率、强度和严重程度预计将增加，可能会对公众的健康产生深远的影响。颗粒物和臭氧等空气污染物水平的变化可能会加剧本已严重的高温影响。设计干预措施和缓解策略来保护公众健康需要首先清楚地了解极端高温事件如何影响死亡率和发病率，并确定最脆弱的人群。该项目将是一项应用研究，重点关注气候变化引起的极端高温对美国老年人口（年龄 > 65 岁）心血管发病率和死亡率的影响。我们的目标是 (1) 对弱势群体（老年人）中极端高温事件对心血管死亡率和发病率的影响进行全国性研究； (2) 评估生物、社会经济和环境因素在多大程度上改变了极端高温的脆弱性； (3) 在污染物排放、人口健康、人口年龄结构、气候适应和气候建模方法的一系列假设下，使用 2020-2100 年期间最新全球气候模型模拟的温度预测，估计未来极端高温事件对心血管死亡率和发病率的影响。该项目汇集了一支多学科团队，拥有生物统计学、环境流行病学、大气科学、工程学、大型数据库管理和气候学方面的专业知识。 公众健康相关性：未来气候变化更强烈的信号之一是发生更严重的与热有关的极端事件，例如在任何温室气体浓度的情况下热浪的持续时间、频率和强度都会增加。该项目将通过严格量化使个人和人群更容易受到极端高温影响的生物、环境和社会经济因素的影响，改善公共卫生和临床实践。通过提供这些因素的改变影响的广泛证据，该项目的研究结果将成为设计有针对性的干预措施以保护弱势群体的科学基础。