Epidemiology of Sexual Violence: A Trajectory-based Approach

描述（由申请人提供）：这项前瞻性调查的目的是使用潜在增长混合模型来确定性暴力（SV）的纵向轨迹。 运用三元影响理论指导评价 自我、社会/情境和文化/环境对不同轨迹的影响。这项研究的基本原理是，重要的是要确定SV行为的不同轨迹在成年期出现时，这些行为往往是启动，并为一些，升级。需要更多的研究，重点是犯罪和纵向。我们的团队已经准备好进行这次调查。这项研究将延长目前资助的国立卫生研究院的研究SV在男大学生在他们的头两年在大学的额外两年，以及加强我们的努力，让学生参与健康相关的研究。具体目标是：（1）确定大学期间男性SV行为的成长轨迹类别;（2）确定内在、社会/情境和文化/环境相关因素在预测不同SV轨迹中的相对重要性。研究结果将表明，是否有许多不同的男性在罕见的情况下从事SV行为，或者大多数不想要的性接触是由一小部分男性犯下的。假设至少存在三种潜在的SV类别-以一致的SV行为为特征的高SV类别、以一致缺乏SV行为为特征的低SV类别以及以间歇性SV为特征的混合SV类别。还假设区分低SV组与间歇性SV组的风险因素将不同于区分低SV组与高SV组的风险因素。具体而言，我们预计，自我因素将与成员在高SV潜在的阶级群体，社会和环境因素将与成员在混合SV潜在的阶级群体。这项研究的创新之处在于，我们将确定一个遵循高SV行为轨迹的男性子集，以及这类个体中普遍存在的风险因素。这些发现将通过增加对SV行为如何随时间变化的理解来推进该领域，预测轨迹类成员资格，并最终设计SV预防干预措施。 公共卫生相关性：性暴力（SV）是一个重大的公共卫生问题。虽然 流行率和危险因素的研究已经获得了关于SV的重要信息，关于SV犯罪的纵向数据有限，关于青年向成年过渡时SV行为的不同轨迹的模式和预测因素存在知识空白。为了有效地干预以预防SV，首先需要研究确定在关键发育期哪些因素预测SV行为的发作、维持、升级和停止。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The objectives of this prospective investigation are to use latent growth mixture modeling to determine the longitudinal trajectories of sexual violence (SV) behaviors during college and to use the Theory of Triadic Influence to guide the assessment of intrapersonal, social/situational, and cultural/environmental influences on the different trajectories. The rationale for the research is that it is important to identify distinct trajectories of SV behaviors during emerging adulthood when these behaviors are often initiated, and for some, escalate. More research is needed that focuses on perpetration and is longitudinal. Our team is particularly poised to undertake this investigation. This research would extend a currently-funded NIH study on SV among male college students during their first two years in college for two additional years, as well as enhance our efforts to involve students in health-related research. The specific aims are (1) to identify classes of growth trajectories of males' SV behavior during college and (2) to determine the relative importance of intrapersonal, social/situational, and cultural/environmental correlates in predicting the different SV trajectories. Findings will indicate if there are many different men who on rare occasions engage in SV behaviors or if a majority of unwanted sexual encounters are perpetrated by a small subset of males. It is hypothesized that at least three latent classes of SV exist - a high SV class characterized by consistent SV behaviors, a low SV class characterized by a consistent lack of SV behaviors, and a mixed SV class characterized by intermittent SV. It also is hypothesized that the risk factors differentiating the low SV group from the intermittent SV group will differ from those differentiating the low SV group from the high SV group. Specifically, we expect that intrapersonal factors will be associated with membership in the high SV latent class group, and that social and environmental factors will be associated with membership in the mixed SV latent class group. This study is innovative in that we will identify a subset of males who follow a trajectory of high SV behaviors and the risk factors that are prevalent among this class of individuals. The findings will advance the field by increasing understanding of how SV behavior changes over time, what predicts trajectory class membership, and ultimately, to the design of preventive interventions for SV. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Sexual violence (SV) is a significant public health problem. Although prevalence and risk factor studies have yielded important information about SV, there is limited longitudinal data on SV perpetration, and knowledge gaps exist regarding the pattern and predictors of different trajectories of SV behaviors as youth transition into adulthood. In order to intervene effectively to prevent SV, research is first needed to determine what factors predict the onset, maintenance, escalation, and desistance of SV behaviors during a key developmental period.