Age Specific Net Migration Estimates for US Counties, 2000-2010

2000-2010 年美国各县特定年龄净移民估计

• 批准号: 8395942
• 负责人: Kenneth Michael Johnson
• 金额: $ 7.85万
• 依托单位: MICHIGAN TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-09-16 至 2013-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8395942
• 关键词: Age; Specific; Net; Migration; Estimates

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project aims to construct a publicly available dataset of net migration estimates (2000-2010) by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all US counties and to provide access to these data for a broad community of researchers and practitioners through an interactive website for on-line mapping and analysis as well as data download. Because the estimates will be produced using a vital statistics version of the forward cohort residual method based on enumerations from Census 2000 and 2010 and birth and death counts from the National Center for Health Statistics, they do not rely on sampling and will be highly accurate and reliable. Each set of age-sex-race/Hispanic origin specific migration estimates will be derived by subtracting a measure of natural increase from population change over the period, with positive or negative differences being attributed to net migration. The project will integrate these 2000 to 2010 data with similar net migration estimates produced each decade since 1950 to produce an integrated longitudinal dataset providing 60 years of age-specific net migration for each US County. The entire dataset will be publically available for download and analysis on a unique and accessible website that allows for interactive custom mapping, chart-making, table construction, and data download. Selective migration by age, race/ethnicity, and sex alters counties' population composition, which has significant implications for health care provision and staffing, service infrastructure development, economic and labor market conditions, and fertility and mortality outcomes. In particular, the spatial distribution of age-specific migration influences the age structure of communities with significant implications for population aging, child health, education, and economic well-being and corresponding needs for health and social services. Accurate net migration estimates by detailed demographic characteristics are essential for research analyzing place- based age-specific migration patterns and for practitioners planning for public health services, civic infrastructure, and community and economic development. The data this project produces will be critically important for research on a variety of policy-relevant topics, including migration of the baby boom cohort and corresponding changes in community health care needs, exurbanization, the aging of the rural population, regional shifts in the migration of Hispanics and African-Americans, the persistence of high out-migration regions, young adult migration patterns, and the role of migration in the growth of amenity and retirement areas. Moreover, the proposed set of county-level net migration estimates are vital to applied demographers making small area population estimates and projections. The project is particularly important because without the proposed data, there will be no reliable county level migration estimates for the post 2000 period due to the demise of the long form of the Census and the limited sample size of the American Community Survey.

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目旨在构建一个公开可用的数据集，按年龄、性别、种族和西班牙裔美国所有县的净移民估计（2000-2010年），并通过一个交互式网站为广泛的研究人员和从业者提供访问这些数据，用于在线地图和分析以及数据下载。由于这些估计将使用基于2000年和2010年人口普查的计数和国家卫生统计中心的出生和死亡计数的前瞻性队列残差法的重要统计版本来产生，因此它们不依赖于抽样，将非常准确和可靠。每一组年龄、性别、种族/西班牙裔的特定移民估计数将通过从这一时期的人口变化中减去自然增长的衡量来得出，正或负的差异归因于净移民。该项目将把2000年至2010年的数据与自1950年以来每十年产生的类似净移民估计数据结合起来，形成一个综合的纵向数据集，提供美国每个县60年来按年龄划分的净移民数据。整个数据集将在一个独特且可访问的网站上公开下载和分析，该网站允许交互式自定义地图、图表制作、表格构建和数据下载。按年龄、种族/民族和性别进行的选择性移徙改变了国家的人口构成，这对卫生保健提供和人员配备、服务基础设施发展、经济和劳动力市场状况以及生育率和死亡率结果产生了重大影响。具体而言，特定年龄移徙的空间分布影响着社区的年龄结构，对人口老龄化、儿童健康、教育和经济福祉以及相应的保健和社会服务需求产生重大影响。通过详细的人口统计特征准确估计净迁移对于研究分析基于地点的年龄特定迁移模式以及从业者规划公共卫生服务、市政基础设施、社区和经济发展至关重要。该项目产生的数据将对各种政策相关主题的研究至关重要，包括婴儿潮一代的迁移和相应的社区卫生保健需求变化、城市化、农村人口老龄化、西班牙裔和非洲裔美国人迁移的区域转移、高外迁地区的持续存在、年轻人迁移模式以及迁移在舒适区和退休区增长中的作用。此外，拟议的一套县级净移徙估计数对于应用人口学家进行小地区人口估计和预测至关重要。该项目特别重要，因为没有拟议的数据，由于长期人口普查的消亡和美国社区调查的有限样本量，将无法对2000年后的时期进行可靠的县级移民估计。