Age Specific Net Migration Estimates for US Counties, 2000-2010

描述(由申请人提供)：该项目旨在按年龄、性别、种族和拉美裔原籍为美国各县建立一个公开可用的净移民估计(2000-2010年)数据集，并通过一个互动网站为广大研究人员和从业人员提供这些数据，以便进行在线绘图和分析以及数据下载。由于这些估计将使用基于2000年和2010年人口普查的计数以及国家卫生统计中心的出生和死亡计数的前向队列残差法的重要统计版本，因此不依赖于抽样，将是高度准确和可靠的。每一套针对年龄、性别、种族/拉美裔原籍的移民估计数将通过从这段时期的人口变化中减去自然增长的一项措施得出，积极或消极的差异将归因于净移民。该项目将把这些2000年至2010年的数据与自1950年以来每十年产生的类似净移民估计数结合起来，以产生一个综合的纵向数据集，提供美国每个县60年的特定年龄的净移民。整个数据集将在一个独特和可访问的网站上公开下载和分析，该网站允许交互式定制地图、绘制图表、构建表格和下载数据。按年龄、种族/民族和性别进行的选择性移民改变了各县的人口构成，这对卫生保健的提供和人员配备、服务基础设施的发展、经济和劳动力市场状况以及生育率和死亡率结果都有重大影响。特别是，特定年龄移徙的空间分布影响着社区的年龄结构，对人口老龄化、儿童健康、教育和经济福祉以及对卫生和社会服务的相应需求具有重大影响。通过详细的人口特征进行准确的净移民估计，对于分析基于地点的特定年龄移民模式的研究以及规划公共卫生服务、公民基础设施以及社区和经济发展的从业者来说是至关重要的。该项目产生的数据对于研究各种与政策相关的主题至关重要，包括婴儿潮人群的迁移和社区卫生保健需求的相应变化、城镇化、农村人口老龄化、拉美裔和非裔美国人移民的区域转移、高迁出率地区的持续、年轻人的移民模式，以及移民在便利设施和退休地区增长中的作用。此外，拟议的一套县级净移民估计数对于应用人口学家进行小区域人口估计和预测至关重要。该项目特别重要，因为如果没有拟议的数据，就不会有可靠的2000年后县级移徙估计数，因为长期的人口普查和美国社区调查样本量有限。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project aims to construct a publicly available dataset of net migration estimates (2000-2010) by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all US counties and to provide access to these data for a broad community of researchers and practitioners through an interactive website for on-line mapping and analysis as well as data download. Because the estimates will be produced using a vital statistics version of the forward cohort residual method based on enumerations from Census 2000 and 2010 and birth and death counts from the National Center for Health Statistics, they do not rely on sampling and will be highly accurate and reliable. Each set of age-sex-race/Hispanic origin specific migration estimates will be derived by subtracting a measure of natural increase from population change over the period, with positive or negative differences being attributed to net migration. The project will integrate these 2000 to 2010 data with similar net migration estimates produced each decade since 1950 to produce an integrated longitudinal dataset providing 60 years of age-specific net migration for each US County. The entire dataset will be publically available for download and analysis on a unique and accessible website that allows for interactive custom mapping, chart-making, table construction, and data download. Selective migration by age, race/ethnicity, and sex alters counties' population composition, which has significant implications for health care provision and staffing, service infrastructure development, economic and labor market conditions, and fertility and mortality outcomes. In particular, the spatial distribution of age-specific migration influences the age structure of communities with significant implications for population aging, child health, education, and economic well-being and corresponding needs for health and social services. Accurate net migration estimates by detailed demographic characteristics are essential for research analyzing place- based age-specific migration patterns and for practitioners planning for public health services, civic infrastructure, and community and economic development. The data this project produces will be critically important for research on a variety of policy-relevant topics, including migration of the baby boom cohort and corresponding changes in community health care needs, exurbanization, the aging of the rural population, regional shifts in the migration of Hispanics and African-Americans, the persistence of high out-migration regions, young adult migration patterns, and the role of migration in the growth of amenity and retirement areas. Moreover, the proposed set of county-level net migration estimates are vital to applied demographers making small area population estimates and projections. The project is particularly important because without the proposed data, there will be no reliable county level migration estimates for the post 2000 period due to the demise of the long form of the Census and the limited sample size of the American Community Survey.