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Development and Validation of Agent-Based Models of Alcohol-Related Violence

基于主体的酒精相关暴力模型的开发和验证

基本信息

批准号：
8330817
负责人：
DENNIS GORMAN
金额：
$ 20.68万
依托单位：
TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCE CTR
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2011-09-10 至 2014-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8330817
关键词：
Address Alcohol consumption Alcoholic Beverages Alcohols California Cells Characteristics Cities Communities Computers Consumption Crime Criminology Data Data Sources Development Drug Formulations Ecology Empirical Research Environment Etiology Excision Funding General Population Geographic Information Systems Goals Hospital Records Individual Lead Left Licensing Lifting Light Link Literature Los Angeles Maps Measures Methods Modeling Natural experiment Neighborhoods Pattern Phase Play Police Police Forces Police officer Policies Population Population Sizes Process Research Research Methodology Research Project Grants Role Running Sales Shapes Simulate Social Disorganizations Staging Statistical Study Students System Testing Texas Theoretical model Time United States Update Validation Violence Visual abstracting alcohol availability base density density of AOD outlets member models and simulation simulation social social group statistics theories university student virtual

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed research project will develop and apply agent-based models (ABMs) to the study of the relationship between alcohol outlet densities and violent crime. Specifically, the research will use the introduction of off-sales alcohol outlets (or package good stores) in the City of Lubbock, Texas on September 23, 2009 to validate theoretically-based ABMs developed using archival data from the previous five years. Prior to this date, the sale of alcohol for off-sale consumption was prohibited within Lubbock city limits. Within a year of this prohibition being lifted, the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission had issued 161 off-sale licenses in the City. This change in alcohol availability provides an opportunity to develop computer-based agent-based simulations of violent crime in Lubbock and to assess whether these can reproduce, and indeed predict, empirical spatial patterns of crime within the City with sufficient accuracy. The specific aims of the proposed research build on members of the research team's previous studies of alcohol outlet density and violent crime. The aims address some of the fundamental theoretical questions concerning the mechanisms whereby increased alcohol availability leads to increased violence that have been left unanswered by previous statistical studies. Specifically, the two main aims of the proposed project are as follows. First, to develop agent-based models that can generate the geospatial patterns of violent crime in Lubbock for the five- year period (September 23, 2004 to September 22, 2009) before the introduction of off- sale outlets. Second, to use these agent-based models of violent crime in the City of Lubbock to predict what happens to the geospatial distribution of violent crime over the two-year period (September 23, 2009 to September 22, 2011) following the introduction of off-sale outlets. The project will use four theories (routine activities theory, social disorganization theory, social influence/selection theory and a refined version of alcohol availability theory) to inform the development of the agent-based models. The quality of the simulation models will be assessed in terms of the degree to which they generate patterns similar to those found in the actual violent crime data. The simulation model will run on a daily time step for both the pre- and post-licensing change periods. Quarterly violence patterns for the simulated city will be compared to quarterly violent crime data for the real city using descriptive statistics and visual inspection of virtual and real maps, as well as the k-function and kernel density estimation methods.

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议的研究项目将开发和应用基于代理的模型（ABM）的酒精出口密度和暴力犯罪之间的关系的研究。具体而言，研究将使用的非销售酒精销售点（或包装好的商店）在城市的拉伯克，得克萨斯州2009年9月23日，以验证理论为基础的ABM开发使用档案数据从过去五年。在此之前，在拉伯克市范围内禁止销售用于非销售消费的酒精。在这项禁令被取消后的一年内，德克萨斯州酒精饮料委员会在该市颁发了161个非销售许可证。酒精供应的这种变化提供了一个机会，以开发基于计算机的基于代理的模拟暴力犯罪的拉伯克，并评估这些是否可以复制，并确实预测，犯罪的经验空间模式在城市足够的准确性。拟议研究的具体目标建立在研究小组成员以前对酒精出口密度和暴力犯罪的研究基础上。这些目标解决了以前的统计研究没有回答的关于酒精供应增加导致暴力增加的机制的一些基本理论问题。具体来说，拟议项目的两个主要目标如下。首先，开发基于代理的模型，可以生成在引入非销售网点之前的五年期间（2004年9月23日至2009年9月22日）拉伯克暴力犯罪的地理空间模式。第二，使用这些基于代理的暴力犯罪模型在城市的拉伯克，以预测发生了什么事的地理空间分布的暴力犯罪在两年期间（2009年9月23日至2011年9月22日）后，推出的非销售网点。该项目将使用四个理论（日常活动理论，社会解体理论，社会影响/选择理论和酒精可用性理论的改进版本）来为基于代理的模型的开发提供信息。模拟模型的质量将根据其产生的模式与实际暴力犯罪数据中发现的模式相似的程度进行评估。模拟模型将在许可变更前后的每日时间步长上运行。模拟城市的季度暴力模式将与真实的城市的季度暴力犯罪数据进行比较，使用描述性统计和虚拟和真实的地图的视觉检查，以及k函数和核密度估计方法。