"Modeling contact investigation and rapid response"

描述(由申请人提供)：将通过接触调查，使用基于个人的模拟，开发疾病控制的数学模型。将对可能从无症状携带者传播以及在症状出现之前传播的病原体进行现实接触调查策略分析。将确定接触调查的广度或针对性，以及在今后的接触调查中应系统地收集哪些信息。这些模型还包括关于接触调查期间行为变化的影响的具体问题。这些模型将应用于结核病传播(因为可获得接触调查专门知识和人口一级的分子流行病学数据)。这样的模型还将应用于基于社区的沙眼消除试验的设置，因为这样的试验可能提供了唯一的实验人类环境，在其中我们可以监测传染病的再次出现。提案中概述了具体的可检验预测。 相关性：我们的项目旨在通过开发具体的业务模式来改进决策和应急准备的规划，以探索利用接触调查(或相关方法，包括环状疫苗接种)控制流行病的最佳方式，并改进接触调查期间的数据收集。我们建议利用结核病和沙眼来开展经验性案例研究。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Mathematical models will be developed for disease control through contact investigation, using individual- based simulations. Realistic contact investigation strategies will be analyzed for pathogens that may be transmissible from asymptomatic carriers as well as transmitted prior to symptoms. It will be determined how extensive or how targeted contact investigation should be, and what information should be systematically collected in future contact investigations. The models also include specific questions regarding the effect of behavior change during a contact investigation. Such models will be applied to tuberculosis transmission (because of the availability of contact investigation expertise and the availability of molecular epidemiogical data at the population level). Such models will also be applied in the setting of community-based trials of trachoma elimination, because such trials provide possibly the only experimental human settings wherein we may monitor the reemergence of an infectious disease. Specific testable predictions are outlined in the proposal. RELEVANCE: Our project is designed to improve planning for decision making and emergency preparedness by developing specific operational models to explore the best way to control epidemics using contact investigation (or related methods, including ring vaccination), and to improve data collection during contact investigations. We are proposing to use tuberculosis and trachoma in developing empirical case studies.