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"Modeling contact investigation and rapid response"

“建模接触者调查和快速反应”

基本信息

批准号：
8654479
负责人：
Travis Christian Porco
金额：
$ 1.47万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2011-08-01 至 2016-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8654479
关键词：
Affect Algorithms American Antibiotics Azithromycin Behavioral Caliber California Case Study Characteristics Clinical Communicable Diseases Communities Contact Tracing Data Data Collection Decision Aid Decision Making Disease Drug resistance Emergency Situation Emerging Communicable Diseases Epidemic Epidemiology Event Frequencies Funding Future Genotype Household Human Individual Infection Intervention Interview Investigation Literature Location Measures Medical Methods Modeling Molecular Monitor Mycobacterium tuberculosis Natural History Population Procedures Public Health Readiness Recording of previous events Reproduction Research Research Design Saskatchewan Scheme Simulate Source Specificity Streptococcus pneumoniae Structure Surveillance Program Symptoms Testing Trachoma Tuberculosis Vaccinated Vaccination Work base behavior change community setting design disorder control human disease improved interest mathematical model models and simulation network models pathogen population based prevent response simulation tool transmission process

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Mathematical models will be developed for disease control through contact investigation, using individual- based simulations. Realistic contact investigation strategies will be analyzed for pathogens that may be transmissible from asymptomatic carriers as well as transmitted prior to symptoms. It will be determined how extensive or how targeted contact investigation should be, and what information should be systematically collected in future contact investigations. The models also include specific questions regarding the effect of behavior change during a contact investigation. Such models will be applied to tuberculosis transmission (because of the availability of contact investigation expertise and the availability of molecular epidemiogical data at the population level). Such models will also be applied in the setting of community-based trials of trachoma elimination, because such trials provide possibly the only experimental human settings wherein we may monitor the reemergence of an infectious disease. Specific testable predictions are outlined in the proposal. RELEVANCE: Our project is designed to improve planning for decision making and emergency preparedness by developing specific operational models to explore the best way to control epidemics using contact investigation (or related methods, including ring vaccination), and to improve data collection during contact investigations. We are proposing to use tuberculosis and trachoma in developing empirical case studies.

描述（由申请方提供）：将使用基于个体的模拟，通过接触调查开发疾病控制的数学模型。将对可能从无症状携带者传播以及在出现症状之前传播的病原体进行现实的接触调查策略分析。将确定接触调查的范围和针对性，以及在未来的接触调查中应系统收集哪些信息。这些模型还包括关于接触调查期间行为变化影响的具体问题。这种模式将适用于结核病传播（因为接触调查的专业知识和人口水平的分子流行病学数据的可用性）。这些模型也将应用于以社区为基础的沙眼消除试验，因为这些试验可能提供了唯一的人类实验环境，我们可以在其中监测传染病的重新出现。提案中概述了具体的可检验预测。相关性：我们的项目旨在通过开发特定的操作模型来改善决策和应急准备的规划，以探索使用接触调查（或相关方法，包括环形疫苗接种）控制流行病的最佳方法，并改善接触调查期间的数据收集。我们建议使用结核病和沙眼在发展经验的案例研究。