"Modeling contact investigation and rapid response"

描述（由申请人提供）：将利用基于个体的模拟，通过接触调查建立疾病控制的数学模型。将分析可能从无症状携带者传播以及在出现症状之前传播的病原体的现实接触调查策略。将确定接触者调查的范围和目标，以及在今后的接触者调查中应系统地收集哪些信息。这些模型还包括有关接触调查期间行为改变影响的具体问题。这些模型将应用于结核病传播（因为有接触者调查专门知识和人口一级的分子流行病学数据）。这些模型还将应用于以社区为基础的消除沙眼试验，因为这些试验可能提供了我们可以监测传染病重新出现的唯一实验人体环境。具体的可测试预测在建议中概述。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Mathematical models will be developed for disease control through contact investigation, using individual- based simulations. Realistic contact investigation strategies will be analyzed for pathogens that may be transmissible from asymptomatic carriers as well as transmitted prior to symptoms. It will be determined how extensive or how targeted contact investigation should be, and what information should be systematically collected in future contact investigations. The models also include specific questions regarding the effect of behavior change during a contact investigation. Such models will be applied to tuberculosis transmission (because of the availability of contact investigation expertise and the availability of molecular epidemiogical data at the population level). Such models will also be applied in the setting of community-based trials of trachoma elimination, because such trials provide possibly the only experimental human settings wherein we may monitor the reemergence of an infectious disease. Specific testable predictions are outlined in the proposal. RELEVANCE: Our project is designed to improve planning for decision making and emergency preparedness by developing specific operational models to explore the best way to control epidemics using contact investigation (or related methods, including ring vaccination), and to improve data collection during contact investigations. We are proposing to use tuberculosis and trachoma in developing empirical case studies.