Improving Robustness of a Tactical Model of Aedes/Dengue Dynamics

提高伊蚊/登革热动力学战术模型的稳健性

• 批准号: 8515921
• 负责人: FRED GOULD
• 金额: $ 31.31万
• 依托单位: NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY RALEIGH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-15 至 2015-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8515921
• 关键词: Address; Aedes; Affect; Area; Arthropods; Behavior; Benefits and Risks; Biology; Bite; Blood; Characteristics; Chemicals; Cities; Cohort Analysis; Collaborations; Communities; Computer Simulation; Country; Coupled; Culicidae; Data; Dengue; Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever; Dengue Shock Syndrome; Dengue Virus; Development; Dimensions; Disease; Disease Outbreaks; Disease Vectors; Empirical Research; Engineering; Epidemic; Epidemiology; Ethics; Female; Fertility; Fever; Genes; Genetic Engineering; Goals; Health system; Herd Immunity; Household; Housing; Human; Human Activities; Individual; Insecta; Insecticides; Intervention; Knowledge; Larva; Life; Location; Longevity; Measles; Measures; Modeling; Mosquito Control; Movement; Neighborhoods; Pattern; Peru; Population; Population Dynamics; Procedures; Process; Public Health; Research; Research Personnel; Research Project Grants; Scientist; Simulate; System; Testing; Transgenic Organisms; Travel; Trust; Uncertainty; Vaccines; Virus Diseases; Work; bone; climate change; density; design; feeding; improved; innovation; insect disease; models and simulation; novel; novel strategies; novel vaccines; operation; programs; reproductive; research study; response; tool; transmission process; vector; vector mosquito

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Dengue is a mosquito vectored viral disease of humans that is now considered the most important arthropod-borne human viral disease. An estimated 50-100 million cases of dengue fever (break-bone fever) and about 500,000 cases of the more life-threatening dengue hemorrhagic fever occur annually. Beyond direct impact on afflicted individuals, urban dengue epidemics overwhelm public health systems of tropical countries. The principal vector of dengue virus is the mosquito, Aedes aegypti, that lives in close association with humans and feed on human blood. The only currently effective way to suppress dengue epidemics involves household insecticide sprays. These sprays can be effective if used efficiently, but this is commonly not the case. Research efforts are underway to develop vaccines against dengue and to create genetically engineered strains of the mosquitoes with genes that block transmission of the dengue from the mosquito to humans. Although there is great hope for these new approaches as well as for improving conventional chemical control of the mosquito, there are many unknowns about the epidemiology of dengue that make it difficult to determine how one would deploy a new vaccine, engineered mosquito, or novel insecticide. We also don't know if it would be most beneficial to use the single most effective new tactic alone, or to use a combination of tactics. Because experimental studies of the efficacy of a new intervention must typically be conducted at a city-wide level, such experiments are generally not feasible or ethical to conduct. Computer simulation studies have often offered an alternative to direct experimentation in scientific fields ranging from space travel to global climate change. Simulations of mathematical models have been a key factor in studying directly transmitted diseases such as measles, but have been used less in studies of insect-vectored diseases. Our overall goal is to create and test the most comprehensive and robust simulation model of Aedes aegypti/dengue dynamics in order to provide research, regulatory, and management communities with a modeling tool for effectively guiding mosquito vector management and vaccine deployment programs. The final model we develop will provide empirical researchers and public health practitioners with credible answers to questions such as: 1) Are dengue epidemics most likely to start by transmission within small neighborhoods or through daily human movement to public places, and how does that determine appropriate response to urban outbreaks? 2) What are the most efficient options for release of transgenic Ae. aegypti strains with anti-dengue constructs? 3) Would it be more efficient and sustainable to combine deployment of dengue vaccines and Ae. aegypti management, or to invest in the single tactic that is most effective and economical on its own?

描述（由申请人提供）：登革热是一种人类的蚊子矢量性病毒疾病，现在被认为是最重要的节肢动物传播的人类病毒疾病。估计每年发生500万例登革热（断裂骨发烧）和约500,000例危及生命较高的登革热大量出血热的病例。除了直接影响受苦的人，城市登革热的流行病压倒了热带国家的公共卫生系统。登革热病毒的主要载体是蚊子埃及埃及，它与人类密切相关并以人类的血液为食。当前抑制登​​革热流行病的唯一有效方法涉及家庭杀虫剂喷雾。如果有效地使用这些喷雾剂，这些喷雾剂可能是有效的，但通常不是这种情况。正在进行研究工作，以开发针对登革热的疫苗，并用蚊子的遗传工程菌株，其基因阻止登革热从蚊子传播到人类。尽管这些新方法以及改善蚊子的常规化学控制有很多希望，但关于登革热的流行病学的许多未知数使得很难确定如何部署新的疫苗，工程蚊子或新型杀虫剂。我们也不知道仅使用最有效的新策略或使用策略的组合是最有益的。由于通常必须在全市范围内进行新干预措施的疗效的实验研究，因此这种实验通常不可行或进行道德。计算机仿真研究通常为从太空旅行到全球气候变化的科学领域进行直接实验提供了替代方案。数学模型的模拟一直是研究直接传播疾病（例如麻疹）的关键因素，但在昆虫载体疾病的研究中使用较少。我们的总体目标是创建和测试艾德斯伊德（Aegypti）/登革热动力（Denge Dynamics）最全面，最强大的仿真模型，以便为研究，监管和管理社区提供有效指导蚊子向量管理和疫苗部署计划的建模工具。我们开发的最终模型将为经验研究人员和公共卫生从业人员提供对以下问题的可信答案：1）登革热流行病最有可能是从小社区内的传播或每天的人类向公共场所转移而开始的，这如何确定对城市暴发的适当回应？ 2）释放转基因AE的最有效选择是什么。具有反登记构建体的埃及菌株？ 3）结合登革热疫苗和AE的部署是更有效和可持续的。埃及管理，还是投资于最有效和经济的单一策略？