Dynamic data-driven decision models for infectious disease control

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DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We aim to improve infectious disease surveillance and control through mathematical modeling, optimization, and translational collaborations with public health decision makers. Methodologically, we will advance the application of mathematical modeling to inform public heath policy decisions by (i) integrating large-scale optimization, economic analyses, and uncertainty quantification into mathematical models of disease transmission in complex and dynamic populations, and by (ii) developing goal-oriented optimization methods for integrating diverse data sources to improve infectious disease surveillance systems. We will apply these approaches using data on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), pertussis, West Nile virus (WNV), and dengue from around the world to elucidate the complex drivers of outbreaks and control and to identify highly effective, economical, and feasible control policies. We will disseminate our models and results to public health authorities and develop user-friendly modeling tools to facilitate preparedness and real-time decision- making regarding the optimal distribution of limited disease control resources. Thus, our interdisciplinary research will expand the methodological toolkit for modeling infectious disease dynamics, provide better strategies for tracking and mitigating epidemics, and make science, data, and models more broadly accessible to public health agencies engaged in the global fight against infectious diseases.