Seattle HIV/AIDS modeling for Prevention

西雅图艾滋病毒/艾滋病预防模型

• 批准号: 9202791
• 负责人: Wanda Martina MORRIS
• 金额: $ 19.31万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-06-15 至 2018-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9202791
• 关键词: AIDS prevention; AIDS/HIV problem; Accounting; Architecture; Behavior; Cataloging; Catalogs; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.); Code; Collaborations; Communicable Diseases; Communities; County; Data; Data Collection; Data Sources; Decision Making; Elements; Ensure; Epidemic; Future; Goals; HIV; Health; Health Planning; Heterosexuals; Incidence; Intervention; Investments; Laboratories; Life; Life Expectancy; Modeling; Modification; Persons; Pilot Projects; Plant Roots; Policies; Policy Maker; Population; Prevalence; Prevention; Prevention program; Prevention strategy; Procedures; Public Health; Quality of life; Recording of previous events; Resources; Running; Sampling; Site; Structure; Surveys; Universities; Washington; Work; adjudicate; base; design; instrument; meetings; men who have sex with men; migration; network models; prototype; racial disparity; sex; simulation; systematic review; tool; transmission process; treatment program; treatment strategy

The goal of this project is to examine the feasibility of developing an HIV transmission model for use in local HIV prevention planning for heterosexuals. Advances in HIV treatment and prevention have changed the intervention policy landscape, and public health departments in the US are now tasked with determining which combination of treatment and prevention strategies will have the greatest impact. Epidemic modeling is a valuable resource for this type of comprehensive HIV prevention planning. However, these models are often parameterized with a combination of data from multiple populations. As a result they are not rooted in, or representative of, a local epidemic, even though treatment and prevention strategies are designed mostly at state and local levels in the U.S. This project seeks to bring the modeling closer to the decision making: to create robust, modifiable and accessible modeling tools for HIV transmission dynamics at the state and local level that will support HIV prevention planning activities. Seattle/King County is an ideal setting for this pilot project because it has a robust HIV treatment and prevention program, the Governor has set a goal of reducing incidence by 50% by 2020, there is a strong team of epidemic modelers at the University of Washington (UW), and there is long history of collaboration between the UW, the state (WA DoH), and Public Health Seattle King County (PHSKC). The UW and local health departments have a history of working together to design local prevention initiatives and the UW CFAR currently supports a collaborative project adapting a model of MSM HIV transmission dynamics from an Emory/UW/CDC project to Seattle and WA State. Building a similar model for heterosexual HIV prevention planning has been identified as a priority by the new Director of the Washington State Department of Health Infectious Disease Office, Claudia Catastini. Heterosexuals account for ~25% of HIV incidence in the U.S. and 10-15% in WA State, with significant disparities by race. Adapting the Atlanta MSM model to represent a heterosexual population is a non-trivial effort – both the model structure and the data sources are different. The purpose of this project is to conduct a thorough and systematic review the data that are locally available and to develop and validate a model prototype, working closely with our partners in the local and state Public Health departments. Our specific aims are to: (1) Develop a prototype stochastic network epidemic model for heterosexual populations, (2) Parameterize the model using local data and conduct a preliminary assessment of the validity of the simulations (3) Work with our public health partners to identify data gaps and opportunities for data collection. If this project demonstrates feasibility, it will establish the rationale for public health investments to collect additional data if necessary, and an R01 level proposal to build out the code for a full working model.

该项目的目标是研究开发用于当地艾滋病毒的艾滋病毒传播模型的可行性。 针对异性恋者的预防规划。艾滋病毒治疗和预防的进展改变了干预政策 景观，美国的公共卫生部门现在的任务是确定哪种治疗组合 而预防策略将产生最大的影响。流行病建模是这类疾病的宝贵资源 全面的艾滋病毒预防规划。但是，这些模型通常使用数据组合进行参数化 来自多个种群。因此，他们不是植根于或代表当地的流行病，即使 在美国，治疗和预防策略主要是在州和地方各级制定的。 该项目旨在使建模更接近决策：创建健壮、可修改和可访问的模型 将支持艾滋病毒预防规划的州和地方一级艾滋病毒传播动态的建模工具 活动。西雅图/金县是这一试点项目的理想地点，因为它有强大的艾滋病毒治疗和 预防计划，州长制定了到2020年将发病率降低50%的目标，有一个强大的团队 华盛顿大学(UW)的流行病模型师，华盛顿大学和华盛顿大学之间有着悠久的合作历史， 州(Wa DoH)和公共卫生西雅图金县(PHSKC)。华盛顿大学和当地卫生部门有一项 合作设计当地预防倡议的历史和UW CFAR目前支持合作 将男男性接触者艾滋病毒传播动力学模型从埃默里/威斯康星州/疾控中心项目调整到西雅图和西澳大利亚的项目。 为异性恋艾滋病毒预防规划建立类似的模式已被新任署长确定为优先事项 华盛顿州卫生部传染病办公室，克劳迪娅·卡塔蒂尼。异性恋占了 美国约25%的艾滋病毒发病率和佤邦10%-15%的艾滋病毒发病率存在明显的种族差异。改编亚特兰大号 MSM模型代表异性恋人群是一项不平凡的工作--无论是模型结构还是数据 消息来源不同。这个项目的目的是对以下数据进行彻底和系统的审查 与我们在当地和州的合作伙伴密切合作，开发和验证模型原型 公共卫生部门。我们的具体目标是：(1)开发一个原型随机网络流行病模型 异性恋人口，(2)使用当地数据对模型进行参数化，并对 模拟的有效性(3)与我们的公共卫生合作伙伴合作，确定数据差距和数据机会 收集。如果这个项目证明了可行性，它将为公共卫生投资筹集资金奠定基础。 必要时提供附加数据，以及构建完整工作模型的代码的R01级建议。