Demographic models and hypothesis testing of delayed effects on adult mortality

摘要1 这个项目的首要目标是检验成人发育起源理论的预测。 健康与疾病(DOHaD)，其中最著名的变体是巴克假说，使用非常长的时间段 并对死亡率时间趋势进行队列分析。我们将使用三个主要数据来源：拉丁美洲死亡率 数据库(Lambda；见webLAMBdA)和人类死亡率数据库(HMD)。此外，我们还将使用 在哥斯达黎加(CRELES)、墨西哥(MHAS)和波多黎各部署了三个老年人纵向数据集 RICO(PREHCO)，所有这些都包含关于成人健康和死亡率以及早期状况的信息。 我们将估计广泛的死亡率统计数据，以表征儿童、成人和老年的死亡率 西南部和北部1780-2010年前后长期死亡率下降期间的轨迹 欧洲和北美(NAWE)，拉丁美洲和加勒比(LAC)1900-2010年。该项目是 围绕两个不同的任务组织：(A)概括和微调现有的正式模型，以代表 DOHaD预测的延迟效应对成人死亡率模式的影响；(B)使用两个 数据库、Lambda和HMD以及CRELES、MHAS和PREHCO作为辅助数据集。 1全文使用的缩略语： Lambda拉丁美洲死亡率数据库和网站； HMD人类死亡数据库及网站； 拉丁美洲和加勒比国家 北美和西欧-南北欧 WebLAMBdA Lambda官方网站www.ssc.wic.edu/cdha/latinmority 美国国防部成人健康与疾病的发育起源

ABSTRACT1 The overarching goal of this project is to test predictions from theories of Developmental Origins of Adult Health and Disease (DOHaD), of which the best known variant is “Barker's hypothesis”, using very long period and cohort mortality time trends. We will use three main sources of data: the Latin American Mortality database (LAMBdA; see webLAMBdA) and the Human mortality database (HMD). In addition, we will use three longitudinal datasets of elderly people fielded in Costa Rica (CRELES), Mexico(MHAS) and Puerto Rico(PREHCO), all of which contain information on adult health and mortality as well as on early conditions. We will estimate a broad spectrum of mortality statistics to characterize child, adult, and old age mortality trajectories during the secular mortality decline, around 1780-2010 in Western-Southern and Northern Europe and North America (NAWE), and 1900-2010 in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC). The project is organized around two distinct tasks: (a) generalizing and fine-tuning an existing formal model to represent adult mortality patterns influenced by delayed effects predicted by DOHaD; (b) testing predictions using two databases, LAMBdA and HMD and CRELES, MHAS and PREHCO as ancillary data sets. 1 Abbreviations used throughout the text: LAMBdA Latin American Mortality Database<website> HMD Human Mortality Database<website> LAC Latin American and Caribbean countries NAWE North America and Western-North-South Europe webLAMBdA LAMBdA official web sitewww.ssc.wisc.edu/cdha/latinmortality DOAhD Developmental Origins of Adult Health and Disease