Characterizing the Spatial Temporal Dynamics and Human Health Risks of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Bacteria in Estuarine Environments

项目摘要 非霍乱弧菌种类，如副溶血性弧菌，通常是潜在的 与海鲜有关的疾病的原因估计导致80,000种疾病，500 美国每年的住院人数和死亡人数为100人。贝类，这通常是 生吃或未煮熟，会积聚多种传染性病原体 包括细菌，使其成为非霍乱弧菌的主要接触途径 感染。随着贝类水产养殖在美国的持续增长，有必要 在采集水中寻找更可靠的弧菌检测方法，以便更好地量化人类 减少这些细菌对健康的危害，并限制弧菌病的负担。这项研究的目标是 是为了表征河口环境中副溶血性弧菌的水平，以及 评估这种新出现的病原体对人类健康的风险。开发的方法将被构建 利用来自两个大河口的综合数据集的独特机会 环境，切萨皮克湾和普吉特海湾，这是最重要的两个 美国东西海岸重要的经济河口系统。量化 分析将侧重于空间和时空统计方法的进步，以 更好地量化河口环境空间预测的不确定性。统计结果 将用于支持制定区域特定的定量微生物风险 弧菌病评估(QMRA)，延长食品和药物管理局(FDA)的现行 国家风险评估模型。Puget Sound数据库包括追踪到的弧菌爆发 回到特定的收获区域，将被用来开发新的剂量反应的信息 风险评估的模型。这项研究的结果将提供可靠的工具， 用于改进副溶血性弧菌感染的风险管理程序 这些水体，以及对其他支持贝类的河口的应用 收获，导致河口经济产量增加，减少疾病负担，以及 改善公共卫生。

Project Summary Non-cholera Vibrio species, such as V. parahaemolyticus, are often an underlying cause of seafood-associated illnesses leading to an estimated 80,000 illnesses, 500 hospitalizations and 100 deaths annually in the United States. Shellfish, which are often consumed raw or undercooked, can accumulate a wide array of infectious pathogen including bacteria, making them a primary exposure route for non-cholera Vibrio infections. As shellfish aquaculture continues to grow in the United States, there is a need for more reliable Vibrio detection methods in harvesting waters in order to better quantify human health risks from these bacteria and to limit the burden of vibriosis. The goals of this research are to characterize levels of Vibrio parahaemolyticus bacteria in estuarine environments and to assess human health risks from this emerging pathogen. Methods developed will be built upon a unique opportunity to work with comprehensive data sets from two large estuarine environments, the Chesapeake Bay and the Puget Sound, which represent two of the most significant economic estuarine systems on the East and West coast of the US. Quantitative analyses will focus on the advancement of spatial and spatial-temporal statistical methods to better quantify uncertainty for spatially predicting in estuarine environments. Statistical results will be used to support the development of a region-specific quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for vibriosis, extending the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) current national risk assessment model. The Puget Sound database includes Vibrio outbreaks traced back to specific harvesting areas, information that will be used to develop a novel dose-response model for the risk assessment. Results of this research will provide reliable tools that can be used to improve risk management procedures for infections from Vibrio parahaemolyticus in both these bodies of water, as well as applications to other estuaries that support shellfish harvesting, leading to increased estuarine economic output, reduced disease burden, and improved public health.