Characterizing the Spatial Temporal Dynamics and Human Health Risks of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Bacteria in Estuarine Environments

项目摘要 非霍乱弧菌物种，如副溶血性弧菌，往往是潜在的 导致估计80，000种疾病的海鲜相关疾病的原因， 美国每年有100人住院和死亡。贝类，通常是 生食或未煮熟的食用，可能会积聚多种传染性病原体 包括细菌，使其成为非霍乱弧菌的主要接触途径 感染.随着贝类水产养殖在美国的持续增长， 在采集的沃茨中寻找更可靠的弧菌检测方法，以便更好地量化人类 这些细菌的健康风险，并限制弧菌病的负担。这项研究的目的是 是为了表征河口环境中副溶血性弧菌细菌的水平， 评估这种新出现的病原体对人类健康的风险。开发的方法将建立在 在一个独特的机会，与全面的数据集，从两个大河口 环境，切萨皮克湾和普吉特湾，这代表了两个最 重要的经济河口系统在美国东海岸和西海岸。定量 分析将侧重于空间和时空统计方法的进步， 更好地量化河口环境空间预测的不确定性。统计结果 将用于支持开发特定区域的定量微生物风险 评估（QMRA）的弧菌病，延长食品和药物管理局（FDA）的目前 国家风险评估模型。普吉特海湾数据库包括追踪到的弧菌疫情 返回到特定的收获区，信息将用于开发一种新的剂量反应 风险评估模型。这项研究的结果将提供可靠的工具， 用于改善副溶血性弧菌感染的风险管理程序， 这两个水体，以及应用到其他河口，支持贝类 收获，从而增加河口经济产出，减少疾病负担， 改善公共卫生。

Project Summary Non-cholera Vibrio species, such as V. parahaemolyticus, are often an underlying cause of seafood-associated illnesses leading to an estimated 80,000 illnesses, 500 hospitalizations and 100 deaths annually in the United States. Shellfish, which are often consumed raw or undercooked, can accumulate a wide array of infectious pathogen including bacteria, making them a primary exposure route for non-cholera Vibrio infections. As shellfish aquaculture continues to grow in the United States, there is a need for more reliable Vibrio detection methods in harvesting waters in order to better quantify human health risks from these bacteria and to limit the burden of vibriosis. The goals of this research are to characterize levels of Vibrio parahaemolyticus bacteria in estuarine environments and to assess human health risks from this emerging pathogen. Methods developed will be built upon a unique opportunity to work with comprehensive data sets from two large estuarine environments, the Chesapeake Bay and the Puget Sound, which represent two of the most significant economic estuarine systems on the East and West coast of the US. Quantitative analyses will focus on the advancement of spatial and spatial-temporal statistical methods to better quantify uncertainty for spatially predicting in estuarine environments. Statistical results will be used to support the development of a region-specific quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for vibriosis, extending the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) current national risk assessment model. The Puget Sound database includes Vibrio outbreaks traced back to specific harvesting areas, information that will be used to develop a novel dose-response model for the risk assessment. Results of this research will provide reliable tools that can be used to improve risk management procedures for infections from Vibrio parahaemolyticus in both these bodies of water, as well as applications to other estuaries that support shellfish harvesting, leading to increased estuarine economic output, reduced disease burden, and improved public health.