Prognostic calculators for patients with Alzheimers disease and related dementias

阿尔茨海默病和相关痴呆症患者的预后计算器

• 批准号: 9912083
• 负责人: Sei Lee
• 金额: $ 38.33万
• 依托单位: NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE/RES/EDU
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-08-15 至 2022-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9912083
• 关键词: Admission activity; Aging; Alzheimer' s Disease; Alzheimer' s disease related dementia; American; Behavior; Blood Vessels; Body Weight decreased; Clinical; Communities; Data; Data Element; Decision Making; Dementia; Dementia caregivers; Discrimination; Disease; Elderly; Eligibility Determination; Enrollment; Exposure to; Family; Fibrinogen; Goals; Health; Health and Retirement Study; Healthcare Systems; Home Nursing Care; Hospitalization; Hyperglycemia; Hypoglycemia; Individual; Intervention; Lasso; Life; Life Expectancy; Logistic Regressions; Longitudinal Studies; Maintenance; Modeling; Nursing Homes; Outcome; Participant; Patients; Persons; Physical Function; Policies; Prevention; Preventive Intervention; Quality of life; Research; Resources; Risk; Sampling; Screening for cancer; Services; Social support; Testing; Time; Validation; advanced dementia; cohort; comorbidity; cost; demographics; disability; experience; functional status; high risk; hospice environment; improved; mortality; mortality risk; novel strategies; online resource; outcome forecast; overtreatment; personalized decision; predictive modeling; prognostic; prognostic tool; risk prediction model; social; tool; trend

Abstract: Considering prognosis and life expectancy in patients across all stages of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias improves decision-making. Decisions that are highly influenced by prognosis for older adults with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias include cancer screening, planning financially for nursing home placement, and hospice eligibility. Despite the importance of prognosis, there are no widely-applicable, accurate, and validated tools to estimate prognosis across all stages of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias for patients living in the community. Existing models are either exclusively for persons with advanced dementia in nursing homes, outdated, or suffer from small size or non-generalizable samples. Our goal is to develop a set of clinically useful prognostic models specifically for persons with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. To maximize the likelihood that these models are accessible to busy clinicians, we will embed these models on eprognosis.org, our online compendium of prognostic calculators. We will develop prognostic models that estimate life expectancy, time to nursing home admission, and risk of death within 6 months for persons with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study. We will externally validate these models using persons with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias enrolled in the National Health and Aging Trends Study. After validation, these models can be widely used to inform clinical and policy-level decisions for millions of Americans with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.

抽象的： 考虑到阿尔茨海默氏病的所有阶段的患者的预后和预期寿命 痴呆症改善决策。对老年人的预后影响很大的决定 阿尔茨海默氏病和相关痴呆症包括癌症筛查，养老院财务计划 安置和临终关怀的资格。尽管预后很重要，但没有广泛应用的 精确且经过验证的工具，以估计阿尔茨海默氏病及相关的所有阶段的预后 居住在社区的患者的痴呆症。现有模型要么仅针对有 疗养院中的晚期痴呆症，过时或遭受小型或不可用的样本。我们的 目标是针对患有阿尔茨海默氏病的患者开发一套临床上有用的预后模型 和相关的痴呆症。为了最大化这些模型可容纳繁忙的临床医生的可能性，我们将 将这些模型嵌入了我们的预后计算器的在线汇编中。我们将发展 预后的模型，估计预期寿命，养老院入院的时间以及6年内死亡的风险 在全国代表性健康中患有阿尔茨海默氏病和相关痴呆症患者的月份 退休研究。我们将使用患有阿尔茨海默氏病的人在外部验证这些模型和 参与国家健康和衰老趋势研究的相关痴呆症。验证后，这些模型可以 广泛用于为数百万患有阿尔茨海默氏病的美国人提供临床和政策级别的决定 和相关的痴呆症。