Prognostic calculators for patients with Alzheimers disease and related dementias

摘要： 考虑到阿尔茨海默病及相关疾病所有阶段患者的预后和预期寿命， 痴呆症能改善决策能力决策高度受老年人预后的影响， 阿尔茨海默氏症和相关痴呆症包括癌症筛查，为养老院做财务规划 安置和临终关怀资格。尽管预后的重要性，没有广泛适用的， 准确，有效的工具来估计阿尔茨海默病和相关疾病的所有阶段的预后 老年痴呆症患者的治疗方法。现有的模型要么是专门为有 养老院中的晚期痴呆、过时或患有小规模或不可推广的样本。我们 目的是开发一套临床上有用的预测模型，专门用于阿尔茨海默病患者 以及相关的痴呆症为了最大限度地提高忙碌的临床医生使用这些模型的可能性，我们将 将这些模型嵌入到eprognosis.org上，这是我们预测计算器的在线概要。我们将开发 预测模型估计预期寿命，入住疗养院的时间和6年内的死亡风险。 2004年，全国代表性卫生和保健机构为阿尔茨海默病和相关痴呆症患者提供了 退休研究。我们将使用阿尔茨海默病患者外部验证这些模型， 相关的痴呆症，参加了国家健康和老龄化趋势研究。经过验证，这些模型可以 广泛用于为数百万患有阿尔茨海默病的美国人提供临床和政策层面的决策 以及相关的痴呆症

Abstract: Considering prognosis and life expectancy in patients across all stages of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias improves decision-making. Decisions that are highly influenced by prognosis for older adults with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias include cancer screening, planning financially for nursing home placement, and hospice eligibility. Despite the importance of prognosis, there are no widely-applicable, accurate, and validated tools to estimate prognosis across all stages of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias for patients living in the community. Existing models are either exclusively for persons with advanced dementia in nursing homes, outdated, or suffer from small size or non-generalizable samples. Our goal is to develop a set of clinically useful prognostic models specifically for persons with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. To maximize the likelihood that these models are accessible to busy clinicians, we will embed these models on eprognosis.org, our online compendium of prognostic calculators. We will develop prognostic models that estimate life expectancy, time to nursing home admission, and risk of death within 6 months for persons with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study. We will externally validate these models using persons with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias enrolled in the National Health and Aging Trends Study. After validation, these models can be widely used to inform clinical and policy-level decisions for millions of Americans with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.