RFA-CE-23-006, Leveraging Individual-Level Data to Evaluate Policies Targeting Acute Risk Periods for Firearm Violence: Extreme Risk Protective Orders and Waiting Periods in California

摘要 许多枪击死亡，包括自杀和家庭暴力导致的他杀死亡，都发生在 风险期。因此，一些预防自杀和暴力的战略侧重于减少在 高风险期，包括通过极端风险先发制人和临时移除枪支 保护令(ERPO)法，以及利用强制性等待期法律推迟获得枪支。尽管 这两种政策都有一些尽管喜忧参半的经验支持，但以前的生态研究不允许 详细了解正在防止谁的死亡(例如，枪支拥有者、同居者或其他 社区成员)，以及何时发生潜在的可预防的死亡。填补这些关键空白 需要纵向的、个人级别的数据。这项工作的最终目标是严格量化 ERPO和等待期法律对手枪拥有者及其同居者死亡风险的影响。 具体地说，利用手枪所有权和转让的纵向研究(LONGSET)，一个已经- 这项拟议的工作汇集了加利福尼亚州超过2500万成年人的数十年队列(2004-2021年)，旨在 评估加州ERPO法律对手枪持有者自杀风险的影响(目标1)，以及 手枪持有者同居者之间的杀人(目标2)。此外，拟议的工作响应了一个共同的 但未经审查的对等待期的批评-首次拥有枪支的人可能无法保护 自己或家庭成员在等待期间免受迫在眉睫的威胁-通过估计 加州强制10天等待期内新购枪者和他们的杀人案 同居者(目标3)。通过为理解ERPO和等待的影响贡献这一经验基础 这项工作将直接支持RFA-CE-23-006(“严格评估 创新和有前景的战略的有效性，以保持个人、家庭、学校和社区 免受与枪支有关的伤害、死亡和犯罪“)，在供资备选方案A下使用现有数据来源。

ABSTRACT Many firearm deaths, including suicides and homicide deaths from intrahousehold violence, occur during acute risk periods. As such, some suicide and violence prevention strategies focus on reducing firearm access at heightened risk periods, including preemptively and temporarily removing firearms by applying Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO) laws, and deferring firearm access using mandatory waiting period laws. Though both types of policies have some, albeit mixed, empirical support, the prior ecologic studies do not allow for a detailed understanding of whose deaths are being prevented (e.g., the gun owner, cohabitants, or other community members) and when potentially preventable deaths are occurring. Filling these critical gaps requires longitudinal, individual-level data. The ultimate objective of this work is to rigorously quantify the effects of ERPO and waiting period laws on mortality risk among handgun owners and their cohabitants. Specifically, using the Longitudinal Study of Handgun Ownership and Transfers (LongSHOT), an already- assembled multi-decade cohort of over 25 million adults in California (2004-2021), the proposed work aims to estimate the effects of California's ERPO law on risk of suicide among handgun owners (Aim 1), and on risk of homicide among cohabitants of handgun owners (Aim 2). Further, the proposed work responds to a common but unexamined critique of waiting periods – the possibility that first-time gun owners will be unable to protect themselves or family members from imminent threat during the waiting period – by estimating the risk of homicide during California's mandatory 10-day waiting period among new handgun purchasers and their cohabitants (Aim 3). By contributing this empirical basis for understanding the effects of ERPO and waiting period policies, this work will directly support the purpose of RFA-CE-23-006 (“to rigorously evaluate the effectiveness of innovative and promising strategies to keep individuals, families, schools, and communities safe from firearm-related injuries, deaths, and crime”) using existing data sources under Funding Option A.