RFA-CE-23-006, Leveraging Individual-Level Data to Evaluate Policies Targeting Acute Risk Periods for Firearm Violence: Extreme Risk Protective Orders and Waiting Periods in California

摘要 许多枪支死亡，包括自杀和家庭暴力造成的他杀，都发生在急性期。 风险期。因此，一些自杀和暴力预防战略的重点是减少枪支的获取， 高风险时期，包括通过应用极端风险先发制人和暂时移除枪支 保护令（ERPO）法，并使用强制性等待期法推迟枪支准入。虽然 这两种类型的政策都有一些，尽管混合，经验支持，以前的生态研究不允许 详细了解哪些人的死亡正在被预防（例如，枪支拥有者，同居者，或其他 社区成员）以及发生可能可预防的死亡时。填补这些关键空白 需要纵向的个人层面的数据。这项工作的最终目标是严格量化 ERPO和等待期法律对手枪拥有者及其同居者死亡风险的影响。 具体来说，使用手枪所有权和转让的纵向研究（LongSHOT），一个已经- 在加州（2004-2021年）聚集了超过2500万成年人的数十年队列，拟议的工作旨在 估计加州的ERPO法律对手枪拥有者自杀风险的影响（目标1），以及对 手枪拥有者的同居者之间的凶杀案（目标2）。此外，拟议的工作回应了一个共同的问题， 但对等待期的未经审查的批评--第一次拥有枪支的人将无法保护自己的可能性， 在等待期间，他们自己或家庭成员免受迫在眉睫的威胁-通过估计 在加州强制性的10天等待期内，新的手枪购买者及其 同居者（目标3）。通过为理解ERPO和等待的影响提供经验基础， 在此期间的政策，这项工作将直接支持RFA-CE-23-006的目的（“严格评估 创新和有前途的战略的有效性，以保持个人，家庭，学校和社区 免受火器相关伤害、死亡和犯罪”），使用供资方案A下的现有数据来源。

ABSTRACT Many firearm deaths, including suicides and homicide deaths from intrahousehold violence, occur during acute risk periods. As such, some suicide and violence prevention strategies focus on reducing firearm access at heightened risk periods, including preemptively and temporarily removing firearms by applying Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO) laws, and deferring firearm access using mandatory waiting period laws. Though both types of policies have some, albeit mixed, empirical support, the prior ecologic studies do not allow for a detailed understanding of whose deaths are being prevented (e.g., the gun owner, cohabitants, or other community members) and when potentially preventable deaths are occurring. Filling these critical gaps requires longitudinal, individual-level data. The ultimate objective of this work is to rigorously quantify the effects of ERPO and waiting period laws on mortality risk among handgun owners and their cohabitants. Specifically, using the Longitudinal Study of Handgun Ownership and Transfers (LongSHOT), an already- assembled multi-decade cohort of over 25 million adults in California (2004-2021), the proposed work aims to estimate the effects of California's ERPO law on risk of suicide among handgun owners (Aim 1), and on risk of homicide among cohabitants of handgun owners (Aim 2). Further, the proposed work responds to a common but unexamined critique of waiting periods – the possibility that first-time gun owners will be unable to protect themselves or family members from imminent threat during the waiting period – by estimating the risk of homicide during California's mandatory 10-day waiting period among new handgun purchasers and their cohabitants (Aim 3). By contributing this empirical basis for understanding the effects of ERPO and waiting period policies, this work will directly support the purpose of RFA-CE-23-006 (“to rigorously evaluate the effectiveness of innovative and promising strategies to keep individuals, families, schools, and communities safe from firearm-related injuries, deaths, and crime”) using existing data sources under Funding Option A.