RFA-CE-23-005, Pathways to firearm violence perpetration: The role of schools, social welfare, and justice systems during the formative school years.

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PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT The goal of this project is to conduct a longitudinal study of the school-to-prison pipeline to firearm violence perpetration, with the overall objective to conduct research to inform opportunities to enhance safety and prevent firearm-related injuries, death, and crime. In 2020, firearm-related homicides were the leading cause of death among 15-44 year olds in the United States; and, in 2021, the number of Minnesotans who died from gunfire reached its highest level in over 20 years. In addition to the substantial health burden, firearm violence is an important element of youth involvement in the justice system. Firearm violence disproportionately impacts underserved populations with BIAPoC (Black, Indigenous, Asian, People or Color) youth overrepresented in the school discipline and justice systems, particularly in Minnesota which has one of the starkest racial/ethnic disparities in the country. Yet, little is known about these trajectories to firearm violence perpetration. Couched within the socioecological framework, we will first study the transition to firearm violence (i.e., time to firearm violence perpetration) and trace how violent behaviors change and intensify over time. We will then examine the effect of violence perpetrated within the school environment and associated disciplinary actions on future involvement in the justice systems into early adulthood; how receipt of social welfare support during childhood impacts future firearm-related violence perpetration focusing on economically disadvantaged youth; and how this relationship might differ by race/ethnicity. Under Research Objective One and Funding Option A for RFA- CE-23-005, we will conduct a longitudinal cohort study to follow 1.4 million children enrolled in K-12 public schools in Minnesota for over 15 years and individually-linked to data from the court and human service systems during their critical years of youth development. We will examine a comprehensive, multi-layer history to characterize propagation to firearm-related violence, and the role of social welfare programs on this trajectory. Our project utilizes linked individual-level, administrative data from the Minnesota Departments of Education and Human Services, and the State Court Administrator’s Office. The findings will help inform the development of promising opportunities to enhance safety and prevent firearm-related injuries, deaths, and crime. Through this study, we will uncover important evidence regarding the first perpetration of firearm violence, as well as persistence and desistance from such violence. In doing so, we will concentrate on the precarious period of the formative school years, adolescence, and emerging adulthood. Our study will address important research gaps regarding the school-to-prison firearm violence pipeline particularly among our most vulnerable youth and evaluate how social welfare programs affect these trajectories.