EID - Effects of avian migration & anthropogenic change on the distribution & tra

描述(申请人提供)：虽然已知人类造成的栖息地干扰是许多传染病暴发和新发事件的主要驱动因素，但全球人为变化对疾病的野生动物生态的影响仍未得到研究。野生鸟类还经常与许多人畜共患疾病的传播有关，从而导致全球大流行。特别是，候鸟有可能在广泛的地理区域传播疾病，据信目前正在全球传播禽流感病毒。甲型流感病毒在野鸟体内持续存在，野鸟是这种疾病的宿主，但令人惊讶的是，大多数研究重点都集中在水禽上，对流感在其他鸟类中的流行和传播几乎一无所知。然而，陆栖鸟类的物种可能与家禽共享同一栖息地，这可能使它们比水禽等水生物种更有效地将疾病传播给人类。有证据表明，其他鸟类，特别是雀形目鸟类的流行率可能被大大低估了。这项拟议的研究将研究北美候鸟在加拿大和美国的繁殖地点以及墨西哥和中美洲和南美洲的越冬地点之间传播禽流感病毒株方面所起的作用。通过绘制病毒株在迁徙路径上的地理分布图，将有可能评估人为环境变化如何影响候鸟和与人类相关的非迁徙物种之间禽流感病毒株的流行和传播动力学。此外，还将研究鸟类和人类之间的传播模式。该项目的具体目标是： 1.确定新北半球-新热带候鸟中禽流感病毒株的分布和流行情况。 2.确定病原体的分布与已确定的迁徙连通性模式的关联程度。 3.确定病毒株是否传播给人类，并评估其在人类中的分布与其在禽类中的总体分布之间的关系。 4.利用遥感数据确定与禽流感流行最密切相关的环境变量，并开发模型，帮助预测生境的人为变化将如何影响以下方面的传播动态：(一)迁徙物种之间；(二)迁徙物种与居留物种之间；(六)越冬、繁殖时鸟类与人类之间 和迁徙中途停留地点。 智力价值：这项研究将提供一些关于迁徙鸟类中病毒疾病进化关系的第一批数据。空间精细化卫星遥感提供的数据将确定哪些生态和土地利用特征与疾病流行最相关。这些结果将被用来开发模型，帮助预测未来人为生态变化可能如何影响疾病的流行和传播。此外，抽样方法为整个美洲建立了一个广泛的禽流感禽类监测网络。 更广泛的影响：为了开展这项研究，组建了一个多学科的专家团队，拥有鸟类田间生态学、分子遗传学、寄生虫学、流行病学、生态建模、高通量实验室技术和遥感方面的专业知识。该研究计划的研究和培训活动将有助于为年轻科学家提供解决生物多样性分析和保护方面的复杂问题所需的跨学科、综合性培训。研究的国际部分将建立在现有关系的基础上，为发展中国家的学生和专业人员提供更多机会接受高级培训，从而提高高水平研究和保护的能力。对疾病传播有重大贡献的生态因素将被用来预测未来土地利用的变化可能如何影响疾病爆发，从而导致更明智的政策决策。最后，我们将及时与公共卫生组织和科学界分享我们的成果，以实现公共利益的最大化。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Although human-induced habitat disturbances are known to be the primary drivers of numerous infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events, the impact of global anthropogenic change on the wildlife ecology of diseases remains under-studied. Wild birds have also often been implicated in the spread of numerous zoonotic diseases leading to global pandemics. In particular, migrating birds, which have the potential to disseminate diseases over a wide geographic area, are believed to be currently spreading avian influenza viruses across the globe. Influenza A viruses are perpetuated in wild birds that act as a reservoir for the disease, but surprisingly, most of the research focus has been on waterfowl, and almost nothing is known about the prevalence and transmission of influenza among other bird species. Yet, species of terrestrial birds may share the same habitat as poultry, which may make them more effective transmitters of disease to humans than aquatic species such as waterfowl. Evidence suggests that prevalence in other avian species, notably Passeriformes, may have been greatly underestimated. The proposed research will examine the role that North American migratory passerines play in the dispersion of avian influenza strains between breeding sites in Canada and the U.S. and wintering sites in Mexico and Central and South America. By mapping the geographic distribution of viral strains onto migratory pathways, it will be possible to evaluate how anthropogenic environmental changes affect the prevalence and transmission dynamics of avian influenza strains between migratory birds and non-migratory species associated with humans. In addition, patterns of transmission between birds and humans will be examined. The specific goals of this project are to: 1. Determine the distribution and prevalence of avian influenza strains in Nearctic-Neotropical migratory birds. 2. Determine the extent to which the distributions of pathogens correlate with identified patterns of migratory connectivity. 3. Determine whether viral strains are transmitted to humans and assess how their distributions in humans relate to their overall distribution in birds. 4. Determine, using remote sensing data, the environmental variables that are most closely associated with the prevalence of avian influenza, and develop models that will aid in the prediction of how anthropogenic changes in habitat will affect transmission dynamics (i) between migratory species, (ii) between migratory and resident species, and (Hi) between birds and humans at wintering, breeding and migratory stopover sites. Intellectual Merit: This research will provide some of the first data on the evolutionary relationship of viral diseases in migratory avifauna. Data provided by spatially refined satellite remote sensing will establish which ecological and land use characteristics best correlate with disease prevalence. These results will be used to develop models that will aid in predicting how future anthropogenic ecological changes may affect disease prevalence and transmission. Furthermore, the sampling methodology provides for an extensive avian surveillance network for avian influenza across the Americas. Broader Impact: To carry out this research, a multidisciplinary team of experts has been assembled with expertise in avian field ecology, molecular genetics, parasitology, epidemiology, ecological modeling, high-throughput laboratory technology and remote sensing. Research and training activities of the research program will help provide young scientists with the cross-disciplinary, integrative training necessary to address complex issues in biodiversity analysis and conservation. The international portions of the research will build on existing relationships to provide greater opportunity for students and professionals from developing countries to receive advanced training leading to increased capacity for high level research and conservation. Ecological factors that contribute significantly to the spread of disease will be used to predict how future land use changes may affect disease outbreaks, thus leading to more informed policy decisions. Finally, we will share our results with public health organizations and the scientific community in a timely fashion in order to maximize the public good.