EID - Effects of avian migration & anthropogenic change on the distribution & tra

描述（由申请人提供）：尽管已知人类引起的栖息地干扰是许多传染病暴发和出现事件的主要驱动因素，但全球人为变化对疾病野生动物生态的影响仍未得到充分研究。野生鸟类也常常与导致全球流行病的许多人畜共患疾病的传播有关。特别是，候鸟有可能在广泛的地理区域传播疾病，据信目前正在地球仪上传播禽流感病毒。甲型流感病毒在野生鸟类中永久存在，作为疾病的储存库，但令人惊讶的是，大多数研究重点都集中在水禽上，对流感在其他鸟类中的流行和传播几乎一无所知。然而，陆地鸟类可能与家禽共享相同的栖息地，这可能使它们比水禽等水生物种更有效地传播疾病给人类。有证据表明，在其他鸟类物种，特别是雀形目中的流行率可能被大大低估了。拟议的研究将研究北美迁徙雀在加拿大和美国的繁殖地以及墨西哥和中美洲和南美洲的越冬地之间传播禽流感病毒株方面所起的作用。通过绘制病毒株在迁徙路径上的地理分布图，将有可能评估人为环境变化如何影响禽流感毒株在候鸟和与人类相关的非迁徙物种之间的流行和传播动态。此外，还将研究鸟类和人类之间的传播模式。该项目的具体目标是： 1.确定禽流感病毒株在新北-新热带候鸟中的分布和流行。 2.确定病原体分布与已确定的迁移连接模式相关的程度。 3.确定病毒株是否传播给人类，并评估其在人类中的分布与其在鸟类中的总体分布之间的关系。 4.利用遥感数据确定与禽流感流行最密切相关的环境变量，并开发模型，帮助预测栖息地的人为变化将如何影响传播动态（i）迁徙物种之间，（ii）迁徙物种和留居物种之间，以及（Hi）鸟类和人类之间越冬、繁殖 和迁徙中途停留地。 学术价值：这项研究将提供一些关于迁徙鸟类中病毒性疾病进化关系的第一批数据。空间精确卫星遥感提供的数据将确定哪些生态和土地使用特征与疾病流行率最相关。这些结果将用于开发模型，以帮助预测未来人为生态变化如何影响疾病的流行和传播。此外，抽样方法为美洲各地广泛的禽流感监测网络提供了条件。 更广泛的影响：为了开展这项研究，组建了一个多学科专家小组，他们具有鸟类野外生态学、分子遗传学、寄生虫学、流行病学、生态建模、高通量实验室技术和遥感方面的专门知识。该研究计划的研究和培训活动将有助于为年轻科学家提供解决生物多样性分析和保护中的复杂问题所需的跨学科综合培训。研究的国际部分将建立在现有关系的基础上，为发展中国家的学生和专业人员提供更多的机会，使他们能够接受高级培训，从而提高高水平研究和保护的能力。将利用对疾病传播起重大作用的生态因素来预测未来土地使用的变化可能如何影响疾病的爆发，从而作出更知情的政策决定。最后，我们将及时与公共卫生组织和科学界分享我们的结果，以最大限度地提高公众利益。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Although human-induced habitat disturbances are known to be the primary drivers of numerous infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events, the impact of global anthropogenic change on the wildlife ecology of diseases remains under-studied. Wild birds have also often been implicated in the spread of numerous zoonotic diseases leading to global pandemics. In particular, migrating birds, which have the potential to disseminate diseases over a wide geographic area, are believed to be currently spreading avian influenza viruses across the globe. Influenza A viruses are perpetuated in wild birds that act as a reservoir for the disease, but surprisingly, most of the research focus has been on waterfowl, and almost nothing is known about the prevalence and transmission of influenza among other bird species. Yet, species of terrestrial birds may share the same habitat as poultry, which may make them more effective transmitters of disease to humans than aquatic species such as waterfowl. Evidence suggests that prevalence in other avian species, notably Passeriformes, may have been greatly underestimated. The proposed research will examine the role that North American migratory passerines play in the dispersion of avian influenza strains between breeding sites in Canada and the U.S. and wintering sites in Mexico and Central and South America. By mapping the geographic distribution of viral strains onto migratory pathways, it will be possible to evaluate how anthropogenic environmental changes affect the prevalence and transmission dynamics of avian influenza strains between migratory birds and non-migratory species associated with humans. In addition, patterns of transmission between birds and humans will be examined. The specific goals of this project are to: 1. Determine the distribution and prevalence of avian influenza strains in Nearctic-Neotropical migratory birds. 2. Determine the extent to which the distributions of pathogens correlate with identified patterns of migratory connectivity. 3. Determine whether viral strains are transmitted to humans and assess how their distributions in humans relate to their overall distribution in birds. 4. Determine, using remote sensing data, the environmental variables that are most closely associated with the prevalence of avian influenza, and develop models that will aid in the prediction of how anthropogenic changes in habitat will affect transmission dynamics (i) between migratory species, (ii) between migratory and resident species, and (Hi) between birds and humans at wintering, breeding and migratory stopover sites. Intellectual Merit: This research will provide some of the first data on the evolutionary relationship of viral diseases in migratory avifauna. Data provided by spatially refined satellite remote sensing will establish which ecological and land use characteristics best correlate with disease prevalence. These results will be used to develop models that will aid in predicting how future anthropogenic ecological changes may affect disease prevalence and transmission. Furthermore, the sampling methodology provides for an extensive avian surveillance network for avian influenza across the Americas. Broader Impact: To carry out this research, a multidisciplinary team of experts has been assembled with expertise in avian field ecology, molecular genetics, parasitology, epidemiology, ecological modeling, high-throughput laboratory technology and remote sensing. Research and training activities of the research program will help provide young scientists with the cross-disciplinary, integrative training necessary to address complex issues in biodiversity analysis and conservation. The international portions of the research will build on existing relationships to provide greater opportunity for students and professionals from developing countries to receive advanced training leading to increased capacity for high level research and conservation. Ecological factors that contribute significantly to the spread of disease will be used to predict how future land use changes may affect disease outbreaks, thus leading to more informed policy decisions. Finally, we will share our results with public health organizations and the scientific community in a timely fashion in order to maximize the public good.