Data & Parameters

传染病的防备和控制关键取决于对疾病传播的了解 在空间和时间上的模式这些模式的研究在很大程度上依赖于高分辨率的公共 健康数据和适用于统计推断的工具。该项目旨在提高对 传染病在美国和国外的时空传播模式， 改进控制战略和更好的准备。该项目将提供第一个组成部分， 由MIDAS中心创建的综合决策支持途径。它将为疾病的研究提供新的视角 传播模式，开发创新的统计和参数估计工具，并将创建一个 为MIDAS网络、决策者和社区提供全面的高分辨率数据资源， 大.具体目标是：1）获取，策展和整合新的大规模流行病学，重要的 统计和人口统计数据，以改善传染病动态的案例法， 建模的基本数据资源; 2）创建用于时空分析的创新工具 疾病传播模式，使用时空统计和灵活的非线性参数估计 方法;和3）从新整合的疾病数据、接触者和感染者中推断个体水平的传播动态。 模式和遗传数据使用先进的计算方法。这将带来新的知识， 对病原体自然史、疫苗接种和其他因素对时空的影响的科学见解 不同的儿童感染的动态，也在个人层面的传播网络。该项目将 改变传染病传播动力学研究的范式，从对特定疾病的专门分析， 受有限数据可用性的限制， 广泛的病原体和地理范围。该项目将建立在MIDAS以往成功的基础上 中心整合和提供大规模公共卫生数据集，并创建创新的非线性 参数估计方法该项目将通过加速资源和工具来推进该领域， 传染病建模，从而更好地防范和控制现有和新出现的威胁

Infectious disease preparedness and control are critically dependent on knowledge of disease transmission patterns across space and time. The study of these patterns is greatly dependent on high-resolution public health data and adaptable tools for statistical inference. This Project aims to improve knowledge on spatiotemporal transmission patterns for infectious diseases in the United States and abroad leading to improved control strategies and better preparedness. This Project will contribute the first components of an integrated decision support pathway created by the MIDAS Center. It will create new insights in disease transmission patterns, develop innovative statistical and parameter estimation tools and will create a comprehensive high-resolution data resource for the MIDAS Network, policy makers, and the community at large. Specific aims are: 1) acquisition, curation, and integration of new large scale epidemiologic, vital statistics, and demographic data to improve the case-law of infectious disease dynamics, resulting in an essential data resource for modeling; 2) creation of innovative tools for the analysis of spatiotemporal disease transmission patterns, using spatiotemporal statistics and flexible non-linear parameter estimation methods; and 3) inferring individual level transmission dynamics from newly integrated disease data, contact patterns, and genetic data using advanced computational methods. This will result in new knowledge and scientific insight in the impact of pathogen natural history, vaccination, and other factors on spatiotemporal dynamics of distinct childhood infections and also in individual level transmission networks. This Project will shift the paradigm for the study of infectious disease transmission dynamics from ad hoc analyses of specific situations constrained by limited data availability to the systematic exploration of transmission dynamics for a wide range of pathogens and geographies. This Project will build on previous successes of the MIDAS Center to integrate and make available large scale public health datasets and to create innovative non-linear parameter estimation methods. This Project will advance the field by accelerating resources and tools for infectious disease modeling, resulting in better preparedness and control of existing and emerging threats