Comparative Modeling of Lung Cancer Prevention, Early Detection and Treatment Interventions

项目摘要 肺癌仍然是美国和全球癌症相关死亡率的主要原因- 每年造成约180万人死亡。作为癌症的合作研究者， 干预和监测建模网络（CISNET）肺部工作组（LWG），我们 为美国减少肺癌的国家战略的发展做出了贡献， 通过量化烟草控制对吸烟、肺癌和总体健康的影响， 死亡率，并通过评估肺癌筛查的人群效益和危害， 我们由于美国吸烟人数的持续减少，预计肺癌死亡率将 继续下降。然而，预计肺癌仍将导致超过400万人死亡， 未来50年。因此，除了烟草控制工作外，还应注重早期发现和 治疗干预对于进一步降低美国的肺癌负担至关重要。 此外，随着电子烟（e-cigs）等新型烟草产品越来越受欢迎， 人们担心，在反对吸烟方面取得的成果可能会逆转。我们建议 继续我们的工作，并扩展我们的模型，以评估1）未来烟草控制的影响 对不断变化的烟草市场格局的干预，2）肺癌的改善 筛查和其他新兴的早期检测策略，3）肺癌的创新 治疗，重要的是，4）它们对肺癌发病率和总体 死亡率在美国和全球。

Project Summary Abstract Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer related mortality in the US and globally— responsible for ~1.8 million deaths annually. As collaborative investigators of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Lung Working Group (LWG), we have contributed to the development of US national strategies for reducing the lung cancer burden by quantifying the impact of tobacco control on smoking, lung cancer, and overall mortality, and by evaluating the population benefits and harms of lung cancer screening in the US. Due to ongoing reductions in smoking in the US, lung cancer mortality is projected to continue declining. However, lung cancer is still expected to result in over 4 million deaths over the next 50 years. Thus, in addition to tobacco control efforts, a focus on early detection and treatment interventions will be critical to further reduce the lung cancer burden in the US. Moreover, as new tobacco products, such as e-cigarettes (e-cigs), become more popular, there are concerns that the gains achieved in the fight against smoking could reverse. We propose to continue our work and extend our models to assess the impact of 1) future tobacco control interventions in the ever-changing tobacco market landscape, 2) improvements in lung cancer screening and other emerging early detection strategies, 3) innovations in lung cancer treatment, and importantly, 4) their synergistic interactions on lung cancer rates and overall mortality in the US and globally.