Assessing risk for firearm injury and attitudes about new gun violence prevention laws in Michigan to enhance policy implementation

项目概要/摘要 我是一名药物滥用研究领域的知名研究者，需要 2 年的支持来扩展我的研究 预防枪伤和死亡。在我的研究中，我使用了发展精神病理学 检查遗传、环境和发育对物质使用影响的相互作用的方法， 反社会行为和个性。结果，我获得了丰富的心理学专业知识 测量和纵向数据分析。我希望将我的研究扩展到枪伤预防方面 强调调查研究，并寻求获得调查方法、流行病学、统计方面的新技能 预测方法（例如机器学习）和政策评估。密歇根大学提供了 实现这一转变的特殊环境，尤其是枪械伤害预防研究所， 为培训和研究提供了独特的跨学科环境。我提出了一系列短期课程， 指导经验和研究合作，以获得这些技能并建立火器伤害线 预防研究。在广为人知的大规模枪击事件之后，密歇根州立法机构最近通过了新的 枪支暴力预防 (GVP) 法，包括扩大背景调查、安全存储要求以及 极端风险保护令或“红旗”法。鉴于 GVP 法律通过的时间，研究 计划将侧重于获取有关 (1) 枪支暴力和自杀风险的信息，以确定哪些人可能遭受枪支暴力和自杀风险 GVP 实践是最需要的，并且 (2) 对新 GVP 法律和 GVP 实践的普遍态度 确定实施的机会和障碍。为此，我收集了一些全国性的网上调查 (N~5000)，其中包括有关枪支暴力的思想和行为的详细信息以及 自杀，以及各种风险因素，包括拥有枪支自杀、心理健康、药物使用、 反社会行为和亲密伴侣暴力。我们将使用机器学习技术来表征风险 因素和以人为本的方法来识别枪支暴力和自杀高风险的枪支拥有者。 然后将完善这些风险分析，以更好地评估分类准确性并构建筛选工具 通过对枪支受害率和自杀率高的群体进行超抽样进行新的调查 评估对 GVP 法律和实践的态度。最后，我们将确定密歇根州的样本代表 评估居民对新 GVP 法律的认识和支持以及在以下地区实施 GVP 实践的意愿 一般而言，枪支暴力和自杀的风险、枪支拥有量以及对 GVP 政策态度的其他相关因素， 并测试接触不同的 GVP 预防信息是否与人们的态度变化有关 GVP 实践。我们假设 GVP 态度和风险的相关性之间存在大量重叠 枪支暴力和自杀的因素。这项研究将提供信息来帮助实施 GVP 法律和 实践，例如通过公众意识活动和针对高风险群体的定制外展活动，以及支持 该奖项将帮助我建立可持续的枪伤和死亡预防研究路线。

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT I am an established investigator in substance use research requesting 2-years of support to expand my research into firearm injury and mortality prevention. In my research, I have used a developmental psychopathology approach to examine the interplay of genetic, environmental, and developmental influences on substance use, antisocial behavior, and personality. As a result, I have acquired substantial expertise in psychological measurement and longitudinal data analyses. I hope to expand my research into firearm injury prevention with an emphasis on survey research, and seek to gain new skills in survey methods, epidemiology, statistical methods for prediction (e.g., machine learning), and policy evaluation. The University of Michigan provides an exceptional environment to make this transition, most notably the Institute for Firearm Injury Prevention, which provides a unique interdisciplinary environment for training and research. I propose a series of short courses, mentored experiences, and research collaborations to gain these skills and establish a line of firearm injury prevention research. Following highly publicized mass shooting the Michigan legislature recently passed new gun violence prevention (GVP) laws including expanded background checks, secure storage requirements, and extreme risk protection order or “red flag” law. Given the timing of the passage of the GVP laws, the research plan will focus on obtaining information about (1) risk for firearm violence and suicide to identify people for whom GVP practices are most needed and (2) attitudes about the new GVP laws and GVP practices generally to identify opportunities and barriers to implementation. To this end, I have collected several national online surveys (N~5000) that include information detailed information about thoughts and behaviors of firearm violence and suicide, as well as risk factors including various of firearm ownership suicidality, mental health, substance use, antisocial behavior, and intimate partner violence. We will use machine learning techniques to characterize risk factors and person-centered approaches to identify gun owners at high-risk for firearm violence and suicide. These risk analyses will then be refined to better assess classification accuracy and construct screening tools by conducting new surveys oversampling from groups with high rates of firearm victimization and suicide as well as assess attitudes about GVP laws and practices. Lastly, we will ascertain a sample representative of Michigan residents to assess awareness of and support for new GVP laws, willingness to implement GVP practices in general, risk for firearm violence and suicide, gun ownership, and other correlates of attitudes about GVP polices, and test whether exposure to different GVP prevention messages is associated with changes in attitudes about GVP practices. We hypothesize there will be substantial overlap between correlates of GVP attitudes and risk factors for firearm violence and suicide. This research will provide information to help implement GVP laws and practices, e.g., through public awareness campaigns and tailored outreach to high-risk groups, and the support of this award will help me to establish a sustainable line of firearm injury and mortality prevention research.