Assessing risk for firearm injury and attitudes about new gun violence prevention laws in Michigan to enhance policy implementation

项目摘要/摘要 我是物质使用研究方面的资深研究员，需要两年的支持以扩大我的研究范围 用于预防枪伤和死亡。在我的研究中，我使用了一种发育性精神病理学 研究遗传、环境和发育对物质使用的影响的相互作用的方法， 反社会行为和个性。因此，我在心理学方面获得了丰富的专业知识 测量和纵向数据分析。我希望通过以下方式扩大我对枪伤预防的研究 重视调查研究，努力掌握调查方法、流行病学、统计学等方面的新技能 预测方法(例如，机器学习)和策略评估。密歇根大学提供 进行这一过渡的特殊环境，最引人注目的是预防火器伤害研究所，该研究所 为培训和研究提供独特的跨学科环境。我提议开设一系列短期课程， 指导经验和研究合作，以获得这些技能并建立一系列枪伤 预防研究。在受到高度关注的大规模枪击事件之后，密歇根州立法机构最近通过了新的 枪支暴力预防(GVP)法律，包括扩大背景调查，安全存储要求，以及 极端风险保护令或“危险信号”法。考虑到GVP法律通过的时机，这项研究 该计划将侧重于获取有关(1)枪支暴力和自杀风险的信息，以确定哪些人 最需要GVP实践和(2)对新GVP法律和GVP实践的态度普遍 确定实施的机会和障碍。为此，我收集了几份全国性的在线调查 (N~5000)，包括有关枪支暴力思想和行为的详细信息和 自杀以及各种危险因素，包括各种枪支拥有者自杀、精神健康、药物使用、 反社会行为和亲密伴侣暴力。我们将使用机器学习技术来表征风险 以人为本的方法，以确定枪支拥有者是枪支暴力和自杀的高危人群。 然后将改进这些风险分析，以更好地评估分类准确性并构建筛查工具 通过进行新的调查，对枪支受害者和自杀率较高的群体进行过度抽样 评估对GVP法律和实践的态度。最后，我们将确定一位密歇根州的样本代表 评估居民对新GVP法律的认识和支持，以及在#年实施GVP实践的意愿 总体上，枪支暴力和自杀的风险，枪支拥有，以及其他与对GVP政策的态度相关的因素， 并测试接触不同的GVP预防信息是否与态度的改变有关 GVP实践。我们假设在GVP态度和风险的相关性之间会有很大的重叠 枪支暴力和自杀的因素。这项研究将提供信息，帮助实施GVP法律和 做法，例如通过提高公众认识运动和为高危群体量身定做的外联活动，以及支持 这一奖项的颁发将帮助我建立一条可持续的枪支伤害和死亡预防研究路线。

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT I am an established investigator in substance use research requesting 2-years of support to expand my research into firearm injury and mortality prevention. In my research, I have used a developmental psychopathology approach to examine the interplay of genetic, environmental, and developmental influences on substance use, antisocial behavior, and personality. As a result, I have acquired substantial expertise in psychological measurement and longitudinal data analyses. I hope to expand my research into firearm injury prevention with an emphasis on survey research, and seek to gain new skills in survey methods, epidemiology, statistical methods for prediction (e.g., machine learning), and policy evaluation. The University of Michigan provides an exceptional environment to make this transition, most notably the Institute for Firearm Injury Prevention, which provides a unique interdisciplinary environment for training and research. I propose a series of short courses, mentored experiences, and research collaborations to gain these skills and establish a line of firearm injury prevention research. Following highly publicized mass shooting the Michigan legislature recently passed new gun violence prevention (GVP) laws including expanded background checks, secure storage requirements, and extreme risk protection order or “red flag” law. Given the timing of the passage of the GVP laws, the research plan will focus on obtaining information about (1) risk for firearm violence and suicide to identify people for whom GVP practices are most needed and (2) attitudes about the new GVP laws and GVP practices generally to identify opportunities and barriers to implementation. To this end, I have collected several national online surveys (N~5000) that include information detailed information about thoughts and behaviors of firearm violence and suicide, as well as risk factors including various of firearm ownership suicidality, mental health, substance use, antisocial behavior, and intimate partner violence. We will use machine learning techniques to characterize risk factors and person-centered approaches to identify gun owners at high-risk for firearm violence and suicide. These risk analyses will then be refined to better assess classification accuracy and construct screening tools by conducting new surveys oversampling from groups with high rates of firearm victimization and suicide as well as assess attitudes about GVP laws and practices. Lastly, we will ascertain a sample representative of Michigan residents to assess awareness of and support for new GVP laws, willingness to implement GVP practices in general, risk for firearm violence and suicide, gun ownership, and other correlates of attitudes about GVP polices, and test whether exposure to different GVP prevention messages is associated with changes in attitudes about GVP practices. We hypothesize there will be substantial overlap between correlates of GVP attitudes and risk factors for firearm violence and suicide. This research will provide information to help implement GVP laws and practices, e.g., through public awareness campaigns and tailored outreach to high-risk groups, and the support of this award will help me to establish a sustainable line of firearm injury and mortality prevention research.