Decision Making in Biosurveillance

生物监测决策

• 批准号: 7925592
• 负责人: MICHAEL MATTHEW WAGNER
• 金额: $ 49.94万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-09-30 至 2012-09-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7925592
• 关键词: Bioterrorism; Computer software; Consultations; Data; Data Analyses; Decision Analysis; Decision Making; Decision Modeling; Decision Support Systems; Differential Diagnosis; Disease; Disease Outbreaks; Drug Formulations; Economic Models; Economics; Epidemiologist; Event; Face; Figs - dietary; Health; Investigation; Libraries; Modeling; Morbidity - disease rate; Output; Policies; Public Health; Publishing; Research; Risk; Science; Speed; State or Local Health Department; System; Techniques; Time; Uncertainty; Work; base; improved; middle column; mortality; pressure; response; surveillance data; tool

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The long-term objective of this research is to advance the use of decision analysis in biosurveillance. The disease surveillance staff in a health department face an increasing number of high-stakes decisions under uncertainty and time pressure. This situation is in part due to the threat of bioterrorism and emerging diseases and in part a result of new surveillance systems they have constructed. These systems collect less diagnostically precise--but earlier--surveillance data in an effort to detect disease outbreaks as early as possible. The specific aims of the research are to (1) construct decision analyses of representative bio-surveillance decision problems using standard decision analytic techniques, and (2) deploy the underlying decision models in a decision-support system for analysts and epidemiologists. The research has the potential to improve the speed and efficacy of public health response to outbreaks and thereby potentially reduce morbidity and mortality. The research also has the potential to increase the efficiency of bio-surveillance systems by providing a basis for rational setting of alarm thresholds.

描述(由申请人提供)： 这项研究的长期目标是促进决策分析在生物监测中的应用。在不确定性和时间压力下，卫生部门的疾病监测人员面临着越来越多的高风险决策。造成这种情况的部分原因是生物恐怖主义和新出现的疾病的威胁，部分原因是它们建立了新的监测系统。这些系统收集诊断精度较低--但更早--的监测数据，以努力尽早发现疾病爆发。 研究的具体目标是(1)使用标准的决策分析技术来构建具有代表性的生物监测决策问题的决策分析，以及(2)将潜在的决策模型部署在面向分析员和流行病学家的决策支持系统中。 这项研究有可能提高公共卫生应对疫情的速度和效率，从而有可能降低发病率和死亡率。这项研究还有可能通过为合理设置警报阈值提供依据，从而提高生物监测系统的效率。