Integrating in-situ detection technologies and developing data assimilation strategies to improve forecast accuracy and assess climate change impacts for Microcystis blooms in Lake Erie

摘要/项目摘要 在过去的几年里，蓝藻危害水华(CHAB)变得更加频繁和强烈 几十年来，由于气候变暖和 人类活动增强的营养负荷。因此，检测和监测CHAB的发展和 毒性越来越重要，特别是对劳伦斯五大湖等淡水系统来说 向许多市政当局供应饮用水。传统的采样和分析方法很耗时， 劳动密集型，通常仅每周或每两周实施一次，这可能无法检测到 短暂但剧毒的水华事件。幸运的是，新颖的、适合用途的检测技术 可通过提供近乎实时的数据来解决先前的限制。 该项目直接涉及COHH3 RFA中列出的四个研究优先事项：(1)比较和 建立监测海洋和五大湖包括有害藻类的现有观测系统的相互关系 (2)评估新开发的现场监测传感器的长期现场应用潜力 海洋和五大湖的性质，(3)评估水中物理化学的实时观测 属性，以及检测HAB物种和毒素，以提供数据流，供 预测模型，(4)制定适当和有效的藻毒素监测战略(特别是在 饮用水)，以保护公众健康。拟议项目的具体目标是 将现场传感和采样技术与数据同化策略相结合，以改善 预测准确，为区域利益攸关方提供CHAB发展和 毒性事件，并评估气候变化对cHAB和内部磷负荷的影响 在伊利湖。我们将通过整合自主的现场环境样本来实现这些目标 处理器、固相吸附毒素跟踪设备、水质探头和现场便携采样 方法，以及卫星遥感与改进水华预报模型的更广泛结果 并开发出更及时、更完整的CHAB毒性和生物量发展的时空图 以及伊利湖的内部磷负荷。总体而言，GLERL的长期水质监测 以及NOAA先进的CHAB预报模型(HAB Tracker)，该模型集成了卫星数据， 物理化学、生物、分子和毒性(本项目)数据，以预测水华的位置、大小和 毒性，提前期为5天，将有助于做出明智、及时的决定，以减少有毒的cHAB对 公共卫生、自然资源和地方经济。项目产出也将对中心作出贡献。 计划的目标是更好地了解气候变化对气候变化的频率和严重程度的影响 伊利湖和其他五大湖地区的cHAB，从而为发展的长期规划提供信息 土地利用以及管理和缓解战略。

Abstract/Project Summary Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cHABs) have become more frequent and intense over the past few decades and are projected to continue to increase in severity and toxicity due to a warming climate and anthropogenically-enhanced nutrient loading. As such, detecting and monitoring cHAB development and toxicity are of growing importance, especially for freshwater systems such as the Laurentian Great Lakes that supply drinking water to many municipalities. Traditional sampling and analysis methods are time-consuming, labor intensive, and generally implemented on only a weekly or bi-weekly basis, which may fail to detect ephemeral yet highly toxic bloom events. Fortunately, novel, fit-for-purpose detection technologies are becoming available to address previous constraints by providing near-real time data. This project directly addresses four research priorities listed in the COHH3 RFA: (1) compare and correlate current observing systems for monitoring ocean and Great Lakes properties including Harmful Algal Blooms, (2) evaluate long-term field application potential of newly developing in situ sensors for monitoring ocean and Great Lakes properties, (3) evaluate real-time, in-water observations of physicochemical properties, as well as the detection of HAB species and toxins, to provide data streams for assimilation by predictive models, (4) develop appropriate and efficient monitoring strategies for algal toxins (particularly in drinking water) that are protective of public health. The specific aims of the proposed project are to integrate in-situ sensing and sampling technologies with data assimilation strategies to improve forecast accuracy, provide regional stakeholders with advanced warning of cHAB development and toxic events, and evaluate the impacts of climate change on cHABs and internal phosphorus loading in Lake Erie. We will accomplish these aims by integrating an autonomous, in-situ Environmental Sample Processor, Solid Phase Adsorption Toxin Tracking devices, water quality probes, and field-portable sampling methods, along with satellite remote sensing with the broader outcome of improving bloom forecasting models and to develop a more timely and complete spatio-temporal picture of developing cHAB toxicity and biomass as well as internal phosphorus loading in Lake Erie. Collectively, GLERL's long-term water quality monitoring and NOAA's advanced cHAB forecasting model (HAB tracker), which integrates satellite data, physicochemical, biological, molecular, and toxicity (this project) data to forecast bloom location, size and toxicity with a 5-day lead time, will facilitate informed, timely decisions to reduce the impacts of toxic cHABs on public health, natural resources, and local economies. Project outputs will also contribute to the Center Program's goal of better understanding the influence of climate change on the frequency and severity of cHABs in Lake Erie and other Great Lakes' regions, and thereby inform long-term planning for development of land use as well as management and mitigation strategies.