The Health Consequences of Urban Scaling

城市规模扩张对健康的影响

• 批准号: 10247542
• 负责人: Usama Bilal
• 金额: $ 39.13万
• 依托单位: DREXEL UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-07 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10247542
• 关键词: Accidental Injury; Affect; Americas; Argentina; Attenuated; Brazil; Chile; Chronic Disease; Cities; Collaborations; Colombia; Communicable Diseases; Complex; Costa Rica; Country; Crime; Data; Development; Diabetes Mellitus; Dimensions; El Salvador; Ensure; Environment; Epidemiology; Foundations; Future; Gases; Goals; Growth; Guatemala; Health; Health Promotion; Heterogeneity; Hypertension; Infrastructure; Institution; Intervention; Latin America; Latin American; Lead; Leadership; Length; Link; Literature; Medicine; Mental Depression; Metabolic Diseases; Mexico; Modeling; Nicaragua; Obesity; Outcome; Output; Peru; Policies; Pollution; Population; Population Sizes; Positioning Attribute; Prevalence; Process; Property; Public Health Schools; Publications; Research; Research Assistant; Research Personnel; Research Project Grants; Resources; Sampling; Science; Service provision; Social Interaction; Substance abuse problem; Surface; System; Training; United States; United States National Center for Health Statistics; Universities; Urban Health; Urban Population; Urbanization; Water; career; collaborative environment; density; innovation; insight; mortality; nutrition; population health; professor; social; social health determinants; success; urban area

Summary The main goal of this project is to enhance the understanding of the processes and dynamics linking urban growth to population health in order to identify promising policies and interventions to promote health in cities all over the world. By 2030, around 60% of the world's population is expected to live in urban areas. With the increase in chronic diseases and the re-emergence of infectious diseases in urban cores in the developing world, there is an urgent need to understand the health consequences of this urban growth and how it could be managed to promote population health. Cities are complex systems where the density of social interactions generates emergent phenomena, including the scaling properties of urban features. Previous research in the complex systems literature has shown how social outputs such as wealth, crime and innovation scale super-linearly (grow more than expected with city size), meaning that their per capita rate is larger in larger cities due to increased amount of social contacts because of network effects. On the other hand, physical infrastructure such as the length of the road network or the number of gas stations scale sub-linearly (grow less than expected) due to increased efficiency thanks to economies of scale. This proposal aims to: (1) study the scaling properties of nine health outcomes in a heterogeneous sample of 718 cities in the US and 10 Latin American countries; (2) investigate the underlying correlates of the scaling properties of these health outcomes; and (3) develop a system dynamics model to understand the mechanisms behind the scaling properties of health outcomes, to generate hypotheses for future studies. Data for Latin America in Aims 1 and 2 will be obtained from the SALURBAL study, a collaboration of 15 institutions in 10 Latin American countries (Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Colombia, Peru, Chile, Brazil and Argentina), led by Drexel University. US data for Aim 1 will be obtained from the NCHS, while US Aim 2 data will be obtained from the RECVD study (1R01AG049970). Aim 3 will use data and parameters from Aims 1 and 2. Given the rapid rate of urbanization globally, our results will have broad implications for understanding of the drivers of urban health worldwide and for urban policies to promote population health. This study will help the investigator to jumpstart a career in complex systems epidemiology and urban health, leveraging and deepening his training in both fields and allowing the investigator to achieve research independence in one of the most promising interdisciplinary collaborative environments in the field of urban health.

总结 该项目的主要目标是加强对过程和动态的理解 将城市增长与人口健康联系起来，以确定有希望的政策和干预措施 来促进世界各地城市的健康。到2030年，世界上大约60%的人口 预计将生活在城市地区。随着慢性病的增加和 在发展中国家的城市核心区， 了解这种城市增长的健康后果，以及如何管理， 促进人口健康。城市是一个复杂的系统， 产生涌现的现象，包括城市特征的缩放特性。先前 对复杂系统文献的研究表明，社会产出，如财富、犯罪 和创新规模超线性（增长超过预期的城市规模），这意味着他们的 大城市的人均死亡率更高，这是因为社会交往量增加， 网络效应。另一方面，道路长度等物质基础设施 网络或加油站的数量呈次线性增长（增长低于预期），原因是 通过规模经济提高效率。本研究的目的是：（1）研究标度 在美国718个城市和10个城市的异质样本中， 拉丁美洲国家;（2）调查的缩放特性的基本相关性， 这些健康结果;（3）开发一个系统动力学模型，以了解 健康结果的缩放特性背后的机制，以产生假设， 未来的研究。拉丁美洲目标1和2的数据将从SALURBAL获得。 这项研究是10个拉丁美洲国家（墨西哥、危地马拉、萨尔瓦多、墨西哥、墨西哥、 萨尔瓦多、尼加拉瓜、哥斯达黎加、哥伦比亚、秘鲁、智利、巴西和阿根廷），由德崇公司牵头 大学美国目标1的数据将从NCHS获得，而美国目标2的数据将从NCHS获得。 从RECVD研究（1 R 01 AG 049970）中获得。Aim 3将使用来自 目标1和2。鉴于全球城市化的快速发展，我们的研究结果将具有广泛的 对理解全球城市健康驱动因素和城市政策的影响， 促进人口健康。这项研究将有助于调查人员在复杂的职业生涯中迅速起步。 系统流行病学和城市卫生，利用和深化他在这两个领域的培训 并允许研究者在最有前途的研究领域之一实现研究独立， 城市卫生领域的跨学科协作环境。