Developing and Applying Analytical Models of Influenza Transmission

流感传播分析模型的开发和应用

• 批准号: 10260850
• 负责人: Jelena Srebric
• 金额: $ 30.85万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF MARYLAND, COLLEGE PARK
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2026-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10260850
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Aerosols; Air; Air Movements; Biological Assay; Biostatistics Core; Breathing; Caliber; Carbon Dioxide; Chest; Clinical; Cohort Studies; Controlled Environment; Core Facility; Coupled; Data; Data Set; Deposition; Development; Disinfection; Dose; Environment; Environmental Monitoring; Equation; Exhalation; Experimental Designs; Exposure to; Face; Ferrets; Formulation; Generations; Germicide; Household; Human; Humidity; Indoor environment; Influenza; Intervention; Investigation; Knowledge; Link; Liquid substance; Location; Measurable; Measurement; Measures; Modeling; Nature; Participant; Particle Size; Positioning Attribute; Prevention; Process; Public Health; Randomized Controlled Trials; Research Project Grants; Risk; Route; Sampling; Sanitation; Scientist; Shapes; Source; Spatial Distribution; Technology; Temperature; Testing; Time; Translating; Translations; Validation; Viral; Virus; Virus Shedding; Work; aerosolized; analytical tool; base; cohort; data collection site; design; experimental study; field study; flu transmission; human subject; infection rate; influenzavirus; innovative technologies; novel; particle; sample collection; submicron; therapy design; tool; transmission process; user-friendly; ventilation; viral transmission; web-based tool

Our current scientific knowledge indicates the importance of influenza transmission via exhaled viral bioaerosols over short and long ranges in indoor environments. The turbulent nature of indoor airflows coupled with the dynamic nature of exhaled bioaerosol sources and the poor understanding of fundamental source terms (including distribution of infective virus by aerosol size and number of viral particles per aerosol) creates difficulties in predicting and tracking aerosol-driven transmission. To address this challenge, novel sampling, collection, and infective virus assay technologies developed in the Advanced Bioaerosol Technology Core (ABTC) will allow the Clinical and Biostatistics Core (CBC) and Research Project 1 (RP1) to design and implement a cohort study capable of collecting critical data sets from both the cohort human subject exhaled breath and the controlled environment of the clinical facility where the cohort study will take place. Based on these critical datasets, Research Project 2 (RP2) will develop both well-mixed and high-fidelity analytical models for deployment in other cohort studies and physical tracking of viral bioaerosol from cohort donors to the recipients. This direct physical bioaerosol link is important to track actual exposure of recipients to viral bioaerosols based on both data and high -fidelity models. Furthermore, this link will enable translation of both cohort data and high-fidelity model results into well-mixed analytical models capable of accounting of quanta (dose) for modeling of risk of influenza transmission. A careful design of the cohort study experiment setup in the clinical facility is the first aim in this RP2 project (Aim 1). The setup design will include on-site data collection on ventilation rates and installation of environmental controls with UV air disinfection. Furthermore, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models will allow to define a face shield shape that will block sprayborne exposure with minimal impact on aerosols. The cohort study in RP1 will use both the identified face shield shape and the environmental controls for the interventions. The data from the intervention cohort studies will support the second aim in RP2 focused on analytical modeling of aerosol-driven transmission of influenza (Aim 2). In this most important aim of RP2, we will characterize the quanta (dose) that resulted in recipient cases of influenza, allowing us to link the dose to both bioaerosol shedding rate from exhaled breath measurements and environment aerosol fate. The aerosol concentration and ultimately aerosol fate will be available through validated high-fidelity modeling of temporal and spatial distributions of bioaerosols. A rigorous validation process of our high-fidelity models will use both continuously monitored environmental data (CO2, temperature, humidity) and viral bioaerosol data. These unique data sets will allow the team to create different type of influenza transmission models to distinguish between the short and long range bioaerosols. The final step is to extend our analytical models to other environments such as household cohort and ferret influenza studies. RP2 will provide both analytical models and a web-based tool for user-friendly access in the field.

我们当前的科学知识表明流感通过呼出的病毒生物气溶胶传播的重要性 室内环境中的短距离和长距离。室内气流的湍流性质与 呼出的生物气溶胶来源的动态性质以及对基本来源术语的理解不足 （包括按气溶胶大小和每个气溶胶病毒颗粒数量划分的感染性病毒分布） 预测和跟踪气溶胶驱动的传播存在困难。为了应对这一挑战，新颖的采样， 先进生物气溶胶技术核心中开发的收集和感染性病毒检测技术 (ABTC) 将允许临床和生物统计学核心 (CBC) 和研究项目 1 (RP1) 设计和 实施一项队列研究，能够从呼出的人类受试者队列中收集关键数据集 呼吸和进行队列研究的临床设施的受控环境。基于 针对这些关键数据集，研究项目 2 (RP2) 将开发混合良好的高保真分析模型 用于其他队列研究中的部署以及对从队列捐赠者到病毒生物气溶胶的物理跟踪 收件人。这种直接的物理生物气溶胶链接对于跟踪接受者实际接触病毒的情况非常重要 基于数据和高保真模型的生物气溶胶。此外，此链接将启用两者的翻译 队列数据和高保真模型结果形成能够计算量子的混合分析模型 （剂量）用于流感传播风险建模。队列研究实验设置的精心设计 临床设施是该 RP2 项目的首要目标（目标 1）。设置设计将包括现场数据收集 通风率和安装紫外线空气消毒环境控制装置。此外， 计算流体动力学 (CFD) 模型将允许定义阻挡喷雾传播的面罩形状 暴露对气溶胶影响最小。 RP1 中的队列研究将使用已确定的面罩形状 以及干预措施的环境控制。干预队列研究的数据将支持 RP2 的第二个目标侧重于气溶胶驱动的流感传播的分析模型（目标 2）。在 这是 RP2 最重要的目标，我们将描述导致接受者病例的量子（剂量） 流感，使我们能够将剂量与呼出气体测量中的生物气溶胶脱落率和 环境气溶胶的命运。气溶胶浓度和最终气溶胶命运将通过以下方式获得 验证了生物气溶胶时间和空间分布的高保真模型。严格的验证过程 我们的高保真模型将使用连续监测的环境数据（二氧化碳、温度、湿度） 和病毒生物气溶胶数据。这些独特的数据集将使团队能够创建不同类型的流感 传输模型来区分短程和长程生物气溶胶。最后一步是扩展我们的 其他环境的分析模型，例如家庭队列和雪貂流感研究。 RP2将提供 分析模型和基于网络的工具，方便用户在现场访问。