Simulation Modeling to Support the Public Health Response to the Opioid Crisis in North America

模拟建模支持北美阿片类药物危机的公共卫生应对

• 批准号: 10617813
• 负责人: Natasha Martin
• 金额: $ 2.44万
• 依托单位: WEILL MEDICAL COLL OF CORNELL UNIV
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-06-01 至 2025-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10617813
• 关键词: Acceleration; Accounting; Address; Affect; American; Automobile Driving; Bacterial Infections; COVID-19 pandemic; Calibration; Canada; Case Study; Cessation of life; Collaborations; Communities; Complex; Country; Data; Decision Making; Drug usage; Educational workshop; Ensure; Environment; Fentanyl; Funding; Future; Goals; HIV; HIV Infections; HIV/HCV; Health; Hepatitis C; Hepatitis C virus; Heroin; High Prevalence; Illicit Drugs; Individual; Intervention; Investments; Joints; Knowledge; Manuscripts; Measures; Medical Societies; Methodology; Methods; Mexico; Modeling; National Institute of Drug Abuse; North America; Opioid; Outcome; Overdose; Pattern; Pharmaceutical Preparations; Policies; Policy Analysis; Policy Maker; Policy Making; Population; Production; Public Health; Public Policy; Publications; Research; Research Personnel; Resources; Role; Route; Science; Secure; Shapes; Speed; Stigmatization; Structure; Time; Translations; United States National Institutes of Health; Vietnam; Violence; War; Writing; data sharing; dissemination strategy; evidence base; improved; in silico; injection drug use; innovation; interest; knowledge translation; meetings; methamphetamine use; model design; models and simulation; mortality; multiple data sources; opioid epidemic; opioid injection; opioid use; opioid use disorder; overdose death; response; simulation; soft tissue; syndemic; trafficking; webinar; working group

PROJECT SUMMARY Opioids were involved in almost 47,000 deaths in the U.S. in 2018—nearly the number who were killed in the entire Vietnam War. Injection opioid and methamphetamine use are driving up rates of HIV and HCV infection. The opioid crisis has similarly affected Canada and Mexico, leading to a call for a North American approach to addressing the opioid crisis. Simulation models provide a structured environment for decision makers to compare the predicted effects of proposed policy alternatives over an extended time horizon on population- level outcomes such as overdose, HIV, and HCV. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided evidence of the utility of using simulation models for public health decision making. Several public agencies are currently funding opioid simulation modeling efforts in North America, including NIDA, CDC, FDA, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), and Canadian provincial agencies. Our overarching goal is to improve the speed, validity, effective knowledge translation, and

项目摘要 2018年，阿片类药物在美国造成近47，000人死亡，几乎是2018年死亡人数的两倍。 整个越南战争。注射阿片类药物和甲基苯丙胺的使用正在推高艾滋病毒和HCV感染率。 阿片类药物危机同样影响了加拿大和墨西哥，导致呼吁北美采取措施， 解决阿片类药物危机。仿真模型为决策者提供了一个结构化的环境， 比较在较长的时间范围内拟议的政策替代方案对人口的预测影响- 水平的结果，如过量，艾滋病毒和HCV。2019冠状病毒病大流行提供了证据，证明 使用模拟模型来进行公共卫生决策。一些公共机构目前正在资助 阿片类药物模拟建模工作在北美，包括NIDA，CDC，FDA，加拿大研究所 卫生研究所（CIHR）和加拿大省级机构。 我们的首要目标是提高速度，有效性，有效的知识翻译，

项目成果

Modeling as Visioning: Exploring the Impact of Criminal Justice Reform on Health of Populations with Substance Use Disorders.

• DOI: 10.1177/23814683231202984
• 发表时间: 2023-07
• 期刊: MDM POLICY & PRACTICE
• 作者: Martin, Natasha K.;Beletsky, Leo;Linas, Benjamin P.;Bayoumi, Ahmed;Pollack, Harold;Larney, Sarah
• 通讯作者: Larney, Sarah