MINIMUM LEGAL DRINKING AGE, YOUTH VIOLENCE, AND DROWNING

申请人摘要：该项目的目的是确定 最低法律的饮酒年龄（MLDA）的变化对青年人的比率 (a)杀人、（B）严重伤害、（c）自杀和（d）溺水。 伤害和犯罪是比较重要的健康和社会问题 美国青少年。 20世纪70年代和80年代，许多州的MLDA发生了变化， “自然实验。“数十项研究探讨了 MLDA对酒后驾驶和交通伤害的变化。 很少有人 研究对其他与酒精有关的青少年问题的影响。 将进行简单的逐个状态的前后比较，但是 主要模型是一个计量经济学“固定效应”模型，使用汇总时间- 48个相邻州的系列和横截面状态数据， 1970- 1990年（约1，000次观测）。 因变量是log 青少年受伤或暴力的比率。 数据来自 国家卫生统计中心死亡证明磁带， 《统一犯罪报告》 关键自变量是一个虚拟变量 变量为特定州年的MLDA。 其他假人 “州”效应和“年”效应的变量包括如下： 对照 还将按种族和性别进行单独的回归。 MLDA 执法代理（如酒精逮捕率）将被添加到 后续运行。 为了确保结果的稳健性，将建立第二个计量经济学模型。 因谋杀和严重伤害罪被雇佣 州和年份假人 变量将被具体因素所取代，预计这些因素将 影响这些罪行。 理论框架是经济模型 理性的行为。 由于犯罪和执法是相互关联的， 将使用联立方程。 该方程将在 对数线性形式，并使用两状态加权估计系数 最小二乘 执法变量是逮捕率。 模型中的自变量包括酒精价格的代理 和麻醉品消费以及教育、城市化、移民、 离婚和严格的枪支管制法。 大多数观察性研究只能确定相关性， 因果关系，因为关联可以用其他方式来解释。 通过 相反，MLDA自然实验的分析可以表明， 一项旨在影响年轻人酒精供应的干预措施也 影响犯罪和溺水

APPLICANT'S ABSTRACT: The aim of the project is to determine the effect of changes in the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) on rates of youth (a) homicide, (b) aggravated assault, (c) suicide and (d) drowning. Injury and crime are among the more important health and social problems of American adolescents. Changes in the MLDA in many states in the 1970s and 1980s created a "natural experiment." Dozens of studies have explored the impact of MLDA changes on drunk driving and traffic injuries. Very few have examine the effect on other alcohol-related youth problems. Simple before-and-after state-by-state comparisons will be made, but the primary model is an econometric "fixed effects" model, using pooled time- series and cross-sectional state data for the 48 contiguous states from 1970- 1990 (about 1,000 observations). The dependent variable is the log of the particular youth injury or youth violence rate. Data come from the National Center for Health Statistics death certificate tapes and from the Uniform Crime Reports. The key independent variable is a dummy variable for the MLDA for the specific state-year. Other dummy variables for the "state" effect and the "year" effect are included as controls. Separate regressions will also be run by race and sex. MLDA enforcement proxies (e.g. alcohol arrest rates) will be added in subsequent runs. To ensure robustness of results, a second econometric model will be employed for homicides and aggravated assault. State and year dummy variables will be replaced by specific factors which are expected to affect these crimes. The theoretical framework is the economic model of rational behavior. Since crime and law enforcement are interrelated, a simultaneous equation will be used. The equation will be estimated in log linear form, and the coefficients estimated using two-state weighted least squares. The law enforcement variable is the arrest rate. Independent variables in the model include proxies for alcohol prices and narcotic consumption as well as education, urbanization, migration, divorce and strictness of handgun control laws. Most observational studies can determine only associations, not causation, for associations can be explained in other ways. By contrast, analysis of the MLDA natural experiment can indicate whether an intervention designed to affect alcohol availability among youth also affects crime and drowning.