Environmental Changes and Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Arid Environments

描述（由研究者提供）：一个主要的公共卫生挑战是更好地了解和预测人为环境变化如何影响病媒传播的疾病。为了应对人口的迅速增长，中东许多国家正在开发前所未有的大规模农业灌溉系统，以增加粮食产量。在上埃及，人们主要担心正在进行的改造旧尼罗河谷（约7万英亩）和托什卡谷（近100万英亩）沙漠环境的灌溉农业项目将大大增加重要蚊媒疾病的风险。这些项目正在为病媒种群创造新的适宜生境，并促进大量人类和动物种群的迁徙和定居。该项目旨在确定上埃及土地利用和沙漠环境大规模改造灌溉农业如何影响西尼罗河病毒的风险和传播动态以及裂谷热病毒和疟疾的流行潜力。有三个具体目标：1）确定土地利用和沙漠环境的灌溉农业改造如何影响蚊子物种的生态和行为及其病原体传播的潜力，2）评估鸟类中的西尼罗河病毒和家畜中的RVFV的程度，并评估动物宿主多样性和相对丰度的地理异质性如何影响病原体传播的潜力，3）采用生态流行病学模拟方法评估环境变化对蚊媒疾病复杂动态和风险的影响。该项目代表了一个独特的机会，在沙漠环境中前所未有的大规模环境扰动的背景下，前瞻性地量化媒介-宿主-病原体种群动态。该项目的成果将有助于埃及以及中东其他地区的综合疾病监测和控制方案。 公共卫生相关性：该项目将调查土地利用和上埃及灌溉农业沙漠环境的大规模改造如何影响重要蚊媒疾病的风险和传播动态，包括西尼罗河病毒，裂谷热病毒和疟疾。通过确定高风险地区和潜在的生态机制，影响环境与媒介、病原体、动物宿主和人类宿主之间的相互作用，该项目将有助于在埃及和整个中东地区实现建立有效的媒介传播疾病监测和控制方案的公共卫生目标。

DESCRIPTION (provided by investigator): A major public health challenge is to better understand and predict how anthropogenic environmental changes affect vector-borne diseases. In response to rapidly expanding human populations many countries in the Middle East are developing unprecedented large-scale agricultural irrigation systems to increase food production. In Upper Egypt, there are major concerns that projects underway to transform desert environments for irrigated agriculture in the Old Nile Valley (about 70,000 acres) and in the Toshka Valley (nearly 1 million acres) will substantially increase the risks of important mosquito-borne diseases. These projects are creating new suitable habitats for vector populations and facilitating the migration and establishment of large human and animal populations. This project addresses the need to determine how land use and the large-scale transformation of desert environments for irrigated agriculture in Upper Egypt affects the risk and transmission dynamics of the well-established West Nile virus (WNV) and the epidemic potential of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) and malaria. There are 3 specific aims: 1) determine how land use and the transformation of desert environments for irrigated agriculture affect the ecology and behavior of mosquito species and their potential for pathogen transmission, 2) evaluate the extent of WNV in birds and RVFV in domestic livestock and assess how geographic heterogeneity in animal host diversity and relative abundance affects the potential for pathogen transmission, and 3) employ eco-epidemiological modeling approaches to assess the impact of environmental changes on the complex dynamics and risks of mosquito-borne diseases. This project represents a unique opportunity to prospectively quantify vector-host-pathogen population dynamics in the context of unprecedented large-scale environmental perturbations in desert environments. The outcomes of this project will contribute to integrated disease surveillance and control programs in Egypt as well as other areas of the Middle East. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project will investigate how land use and the large-scale transformation of desert environments for irrigated agriculture in Upper Egypt affects the risk and transmission dynamics of important mosquito-borne diseases including West Nile virus, Rift Valley fever virus, and malaria. By identifying high-risk areas and underlying ecological mechanisms affecting interactions between the environment and populations of vectors, pathogens, animal reservoirs, and human hosts, this project will contribute to the public health goal of establishing effective vector-borne disease surveillance and control programs in Egypt and throughout the Middle East.