Biomathematical Evaluation of Colon Cancer Screening and Prevention

描述（由申请人提供）：尽管有大量的实验、临床和流行病学数据有助于确定结直肠癌（CRC）的重要遗传成分和途径，但CRC仍然是癌症相关死亡的第二大原因，仅在美国，2008年预计就有近50，000例死亡。由于CRC主要发生在良性前体（主要是腺瘤性息肉）中，这些前体可能会在恶性之前逗留多年，因此CRC可以通过筛查和及时干预来预防。此次更新的目的是通过对CRC自然史的生物数学描述，进一步探索如何最有效地应用筛查和干预措施来降低CRC相关死亡率 公共卫生相关性：从临床和公共卫生的角度来看，这一更新的总体目标是进一步开发和验证结直肠癌自然史的生物数学模型，用于定量癌症风险预测。这些模型还旨在帮助临床医生管理筛查发现的前驱病变和临床前癌症患者的癌症监测和干预措施。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): In spite of the wealth of experimental, clinical and epidemiological data that have helped identify important genetic components and pathways in colorectal cancer (CRC), CRC continues to be the second leading cause of cancer associated death, with close to 50,000 deaths predicted for the year 2008 in the US alone. Because CRC arises predominantly in benign precursors (mainly the adenomatous polyps), which are likely to sojourn for many years before they turn malignant, CRC can be prevented largely through screening and prompt intervention. The goal of this renewal is to further explore, via a biomathematical description of the natural history of CRC, how screening and interventions can be applied most effectively to reduce the mortality associated with CRC PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Relevance from a clinical and public health perspective, the overarching goal of this renewal is to further develop and validate biomathematical models of the natural history of colorectal cancer for quantitative cancer risk prediction. These models are also meant to help clinicians manage cancer surveillance and interventions in patients with screen-detected precursor lesions and pre-clinical cancer.