Predicting vector-borne virus transmission dynamics and emergence potential

描述(申请人提供)：我们建议使用数学模型，以更好地了解登革热和类似的蚊媒疾病的出现/重新出现，并评估干预策略在阻止它们方面的有效性。这项提议的长期目标是通过描述传播的特征来为暴发的模型和应对努力提供信息，从而减轻登革热和类似疾病的负担。我们打算向这些公共卫生官员和政策制定者提供一种产品，它不仅是准确和可预测的，而且利用了现成的和/或常规收集的数据(例如临床数据和蚊子监测项目的数据)，以及一个既可使用又能产生可理解和可解释的输出的模型。此外，我们预计我们的模型和输出可以扩展到其他现有的媒介传播病毒以及尚未识别的新出现的威胁。目前登革热病毒传播的现有数学模型虽然增加了我们对传播动力学的理解，但主要不是为了解释详细的流行病学预测和评估。预测模型需要跨越多个尺度，从房屋到社区，再到国际层面。因此，我们提出了以下具体目标：1)建立蚊子和人中DENV感染动力学的数学模型，2)建立驱动DENV传播的接触动力学模型，3)将这些组件模型集成到详细的基于代理的蚊媒传播模拟模型中。通过实现这些目标，我们将面对登革热和类似病毒(如基孔肯雅病毒)在美国大陆出现/重新出现的紧迫公共卫生问题。 相关性：由于目前还没有登革热病毒的疫苗或治疗方法，减少传播是公共卫生的第一道也是唯一一道防线。增加已知和接受的传播措施的精确度，并最终告知传播模式，将使预防和/或应对登革热等媒介传播病毒暴发的反应更快、更直接和更可行。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We propose to use mathematical modeling to better understand the emergence/re-emergence of dengue fever and similar mosquito-borne diseases and to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention strategies on stopping them. The long term goal of this proposal is to reduce the burden of dengue fever and similar diseases by characterizing transmission to inform models of and response efforts to outbreaks. We intend to deliver a product to these public health officials and policy makers which not only is accurate and predictive, but which utilizes data that is readily available and/or routinely collected (e.g. clinical data, and that from mosquito surveillance programs), as well as a model that is both accessible in use and produces understandable and interpretable outputs. Further, we anticipate our model and outputs to be expandable to other existing vector borne viruses as well as to newly emerging threats not yet identified. Currently existing mathematical models of dengue virus transmission, though add to our understanding of transmission dynamics, are not primarily designed to account for detailed epidemiological prediction and evaluation. Predictive models need to span multiple scales, from house to the community to the international level. Accordingly, we propose the following specific aims: 1) Develop mathematical models of the infection dynamics of DENV in the mosquito and human, 2) Formulate models of the contact dynamics that drive transmission of DENV and 3) Integrate these component models into detailed agent-based simulation models of mosquito-borne transmission. By addressing these aims, we will confront the urgent public health problem of the emergence/re-emergence of dengue and similar viruses, such as chikungunya virus, in the continental US. RELEVANCE: As no vaccine or treatment is available for dengue virus, mitigating transmission is the first and only line of defense of public health. Adding precision and thus accuracy to known and accepted measures of transmission and ultimately informing a transmission model will allow for quicker, more directed and actionable responses to prevent and/or respond to an outbreak of a vector-borne virus such as dengue.