Predicting vector-borne virus transmission dynamics and emergence potential

预测媒介传播病毒的传播动态和出现潜力

• 批准号: 8281446
• 负责人: Christopher Mores
• 金额: $ 59.24万
• 依托单位: LOUISIANA STATE UNIV A&M COL BATON ROUGE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-06-15 至 2016-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8281446
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Aedes; Antibodies; Arboviruses; Area; Chikungunya virus; Clinical Data; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Complex; Culicidae; Data; Dengue; Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever; Dengue Shock Syndrome; Dengue Virus; Development; Disease; Disease Outbreaks; Ecology; Effectiveness of Interventions; Epidemic; Epidemiology; Evaluation; Explosion; Global Warming; Goals; Hemorrhagic Shock; Housing; Human; Immunity; Immunological Models; Immunologics; Infection; International; Intervention; Measures; Modeling; Morbidity - disease rate; Mosquito-borne infectious disease; Output; Policies; Policy Maker; Population; Populations at Risk; Predisposition; Public Health; Public Policy; Puerto Rico; Recording of previous events; Relative (related person); Research; Research Infrastructure; Serotyping; Statistical Models; Surveillance Program; Syndrome; System; Texas; Uncertainty; United States; Urbanization; Vaccines; Viral; Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers; Viremia; Virus; base; chikungunya; climate change; density; design; disorder control; environmental change; fitness; flu; mathematical model; models and simulation; mortality; pathogen; predictive modeling; prevent; response; secondary infection; tool; transmission process; uptake; user-friendly; vector

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We propose to use mathematical modeling to better understand the emergence/re-emergence of dengue fever and similar mosquito-borne diseases and to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention strategies on stopping them. The long term goal of this proposal is to reduce the burden of dengue fever and similar diseases by characterizing transmission to inform models of and response efforts to outbreaks. We intend to deliver a product to these public health officials and policy makers which not only is accurate and predictive, but which utilizes data that is readily available and/or routinely collected (e.g. clinical data, and that from mosquito surveillance programs), as well as a model that is both accessible in use and produces understandable and interpretable outputs. Further, we anticipate our model and outputs to be expandable to other existing vector borne viruses as well as to newly emerging threats not yet identified. Currently existing mathematical models of dengue virus transmission, though add to our understanding of transmission dynamics, are not primarily designed to account for detailed epidemiological prediction and evaluation. Predictive models need to span multiple scales, from house to the community to the international level. Accordingly, we propose the following specific aims: 1) Develop mathematical models of the infection dynamics of DENV in the mosquito and human, 2) Formulate models of the contact dynamics that drive transmission of DENV and 3) Integrate these component models into detailed agent-based simulation models of mosquito-borne transmission. By addressing these aims, we will confront the urgent public health problem of the emergence/re-emergence of dengue and similar viruses, such as chikungunya virus, in the continental US. RELEVANCE: As no vaccine or treatment is available for dengue virus, mitigating transmission is the first and only line of defense of public health. Adding precision and thus accuracy to known and accepted measures of transmission and ultimately informing a transmission model will allow for quicker, more directed and actionable responses to prevent and/or respond to an outbreak of a vector-borne virus such as dengue.

描述（由申请人提供）：我们建议使用数学建模来更好地了解登革热和类似蚊媒疾病的出现/重新出现，并评估干预策略对阻止它们的有效性。该提案的长期目标是通过描述传播特征，为疫情模型和应对工作提供信息，以减轻登革热和类似疾病的负担。我们打算向这些公共卫生官员和政策制定者提供一种产品，这种产品不仅是准确和可预测的，而且利用容易获得和/或常规收集的数据（例如临床数据和蚊子监测项目的数据），以及一种既可使用又可产生可理解和可解释输出的模型。此外，我们预计我们的模型和输出可扩展到其他现有的媒介传播病毒以及尚未确定的新出现的威胁。目前现有的登革热病毒传播的数学模型，虽然增加了我们对传播动力学的理解，但主要不是为了解释详细的流行病学预测和评估。预测模型需要跨越多个尺度，从家庭到社区再到国际层面。因此，我们提出了以下具体目标：1）建立DENV在蚊子和人类中感染动力学的数学模型，2）制定驱动DENV传播的接触动力学模型，3）将这些组件模型集成到详细的基于代理的模拟模型中。通过实现这些目标，我们将面对登革热和类似病毒（如基孔肯雅病毒）在美国大陆出现/重新出现的紧迫公共卫生问题。 相关性：由于没有登革热病毒的疫苗或治疗方法，减少传播是公共卫生的第一道也是唯一的防线。为已知和可接受的传播测量方法增加精确度，从而提高准确性，并最终为传播模型提供信息，将有助于采取更快、更有针对性和可操作的反应，以预防和/或应对登革热等病媒传播病毒的爆发。