The Global Diffusion of Tobacco Control

烟草控制的全球传播

• 批准号: 8827269
• 负责人: THOMAS W VALENTE
• 金额: $ 8.89万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-05-01 至 2016-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8827269
• 关键词: Address; Adopted; Adoption; Advocacy; Area; Behavior; Behavioral; Cessation of life; Characteristics; Communication; Complex; Country; Data; Data Set; Databases; Dependency; Diffuse; Diffusion; Diffusion of Innovation; Electronics; Event; Event History Analysis; Future; Goals; Health; Income; Income Distributions; Individual; International; Laws; Legal; Mediation; Modeling; NIH Program Announcements; Nature; Outcome; Pathway Analysis; Policies; Population; Population Distributions; Predisposition; Procedures; Process; Production; Public Health; Recording of previous events; Research; Science; Smoker; Smoking; Social Interaction; Social Network; Source; Specific qualifier value; Testing; Time; Tobacco; Tobacco use; Treaty; World Health Organization; combat; global health; health economics; member; reduce tobacco use; response; tobacco control

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Although smoking rates have decreased in many parts of the globe, there are still an estimated 1.3 billion smokers globally, and tobacco use is still the leading cause of preventable death worldwide. To combat the ongoing problem of tobacco use, the WHO Member States negotiated and unanimously adopted the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) which is an international treaty aimed at reducing tobacco use. About 87% of the 193 WHO member countries have ratified the FCTC (or its legal equivalent) as of April 2011. Understanding when, how, and why individual countries ratified the FCTC and subsequently enacted policies implementing the treaty obligations is a critical research question that has implications for understanding network effects, the science of diffusion of innovations, as well as prospects for enacting future international public health law. This study proposes to compile extensive network data from GLOBALink, an electronic forum for global tobacco advocacy, to construct multiple social networks that can be used to estimate network effects in a dynamic modeling framework. We study network influences on the diffusion and adoption of the FCTC and the strength of its implementation among the 193 member countries over a 9-year period. We also propose to augment the network data with an extensive database of country attributes such as total population; population distribution; size (area); income; income distribution; tobacco production; governmental form; region; spending on power, communications, and trade; existence of tobacco control NGOs; and so on. These attributes will be used to control for their possible associations with FCTC ratification and implementation to determine whether these characteristics are associated with infectivity or susceptibility to FCTC diffusion. We have also acquired data on the ratification of two other international treaties which diffused over a similar time-span. These treaties will act as "comparison treaties" in which we do not expect GLOBALink participation to be associated with their ratification. At the same time, we will acquire other inter-country network data to test whether these other networks (trade and communication) were associated with the comparison treaties and not with FCTC adoption. The final aim combines the traditional diffusion network approach with the newly developed actor-oriented MCMC approach created to address network dependencies. We have built a diffusion network stochastic actor oriented (SIENA) platform in R to test specific dynamic network influence hypotheses. This event history analysis will enable the testing of network influences over the 108 months of treaty adoption that incorporates parameters for reciprocity, transitivity, alternating k-stars, and the many other parameters built into RSIENA. These procedures enable the specification of complex network effects that dynamically consider the coevolution of networks and behavior. Finally, we will supplement our analyses with selected content analysis of messages exchanged between GLOBALink users. Our overall goal is to compile a rich dataset on the international diffusion of three treaties expected to be differentially influenced by at least 10 different networks. The significance of thi proposed research is derived from addressing an important global health topic, retrieving data of unprecedented richness and granularity, and employing a sophisticated yet new comprehensive modeling approach.

描述（由申请人提供）：尽管地球仪许多地区的吸烟率已经下降，但全球估计仍有13亿吸烟者，烟草使用仍是全球可预防死亡的主要原因。为了解决持续存在的烟草使用问题，世卫组织成员国谈判并一致通过了《世卫组织烟草控制框架公约》，这是一项旨在减少烟草使用的国际条约。截至2011年4月，世卫组织193个成员国中约有87%批准了《烟草控制框架公约》（或其法律的等同物）。了解各国何时、如何以及为何批准《烟草控制框架公约》并随后颁布实施条约义务的政策是一个关键的研究问题，它对理解网络效应、创新传播科学以及颁布未来国际公共卫生法的前景都有影响。 本研究建议从全球烟草倡导电子论坛GLOBALink中收集大量网络数据，构建多个社交网络，用于在动态建模框架中估计网络效应。我们研究了网络对FCTC的传播和采用的影响，以及193个成员国在9年期间实施的力度。我们还建议用一个广泛的国家属性数据库来扩充网络数据，这些属性包括：总人口;人口分布;规模（面积）;收入;收入分配;烟草生产;政府形式;地区;电力、通信和贸易支出;烟草控制非政府组织的存在;这些属性将用于控制它们与FCTC批准和实施的可能关联，以确定这些特征是否与传染性相关或对FCTC扩散的敏感性。我们还获得了关于在类似时间跨度内批准其他两项国际条约的数据。这些条约将作为“比较条约”，我们不希望GLOBALink的参与与其批准有关。与此同时，我们将获取其他国家间网络数据，以检验这些其他网络（贸易和通信）是否与比较条约有关，而与FCTC的通过无关。最后的目标结合了传统的扩散网络的方法与新开发的面向行动者的MCMC方法创建，以解决网络的依赖性。我们在R中构建了一个面向扩散网络随机行为者（SIENA）的平台，以测试特定的动态网络影响假设。这种事件历史分析将使网络影响测试在108个月的条约通过，包括互惠性，传递性，交替k星参数，以及许多其他参数内置到RSIENA。这些程序使复杂的网络效应，动态地考虑网络和行为的共同进化的规范。最后，我们将通过GLOBALink用户之间交换的消息的选定内容分析来补充我们的分析。我们的总体目标是汇编一个关于三项条约国际传播的丰富数据集，预计这些条约将受到至少10个不同网络的不同影响。这项研究的意义来自于解决一个重要的全球健康问题，检索前所未有的丰富性和粒度的数据，并采用一种复杂而新的综合建模方法。