Better targeting of preventive services using epidemiological modelling

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The purpose of this program of research is to improve the effectiveness of chronic disease prevention in Australia. The focus is to develop epidemiological models that can assist policy-makers to make more informed choices of which preventive programs to fund, improve the ability of clinicians to provide accurate preventive advice and to increase the ability of consumers to make decisions about preventive activities (that may relate to themselves or their communities). Australian population trends over coming years will be dominated by increasing numbers of elderly and a continuing increase in average lifespan. A priority for preventive healthcare is to maintain the elderly in a healthy active state, free of chronic disease, for as long as possible. Options to achieve this are increasing but vary in terms of likely effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Since many of the costs and benefits of preventive programs occur beyond the time-scale of major intervention trials, the prediction of long-term benefits requires the integration of information from multiple sources including trials, epidemiological studies, risk-factor surveys and demography through a process referred to as epidemiological modelling. This project has major relevance to consumers, allied health professionals and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. One outcome of the project will be to allow consumers to make informed decisions about their preventive health care and will assist allied health professionals providing preventive advice to patients. These include occupational health nurses, health promotion officers, Aboriginal health workers and nurse practitioners.