Spatial and spatial-temporal change in the natural environment

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Change in the natural environment can have severe ecological, social, economic, and political consequences and as result, is of growing scientific interest. Environmental change is linked to both space and time. For instance, climate change is altering the spatial range of many species (e.g., polar bears), and increasing the temporal frequency and severity of forest fires. The current mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia, believed to be the result of both climate change and long-term forest management practices, is a poignant example of how environmental change can have devastating consequences. Technological improvements in data collection and storage (i.e., imaging satellites, global positioning systems (GPS), and geographic information systems (GIS)) have increased the availability of spatial data. These mapping technologies, combined with monitoring efforts, are generating large spatial and multi-temporal data sets of the current mountain pine beetle outbreak. Data such as these provide unprecedented scientific opportunities to explore spatial and spatial-temporal change in natural environments; however, effective scientific methods for investigating these data are required to address the unique challenges these novel data sets present (e.g., large area coverage, multiple spatial scales, multiple time periods, dynamic phenomena). This research focuses on overcoming methodological limitations associated with these large, multi-temporal change datasets. Novel analysis methods will be developed to investigate changes in space, and changes through space and time, in the location, extent, and magnitude of mountain pine beetle infestations on the forested landscape. These investigations will improve the spatial understanding of beetle dynamics (e.g., dispersal and spread) over large areas. Methods developed will have widespread applicability to other large spatial and multi-temporal datasets, and will be valuable tools for examining epidemics (e.g., Avian Influenza), and spatial phenomena associated with environmental change (e.g., biological range expansion or contraction, snow cover change).