Ecological effects of climate change on temperate grasslands

预计到2080年代，加拿大的主要环境变化包括：（一）大气中的二氧化碳含量在百万分之525至810之间;（二）农业区夏季平均气温上升3至9摄氏度;（三）这些地区夏季降雨量不足，水量在0至90毫米之间。 减缓和适应政策的制定需要对这些变化的影响作出科学的估计。 我的研究计划的长期目标（>10年）是能够预测气候变化可能导致的温带草原生态系统的变化。 我的中期目标（5-10年）是预测气候变化对温带牧草（高羊茅和多年生黑麦草）及其内生真菌（Neotyphodium coenophialum和N. lolii）和谷类蚜虫（主要是禾谷缢管蚜（Rhopalosiphum padi））使用这些草作为宿主。 我实现这些目标的方法是将实验和数学建模结合起来，从生物化学到种群和群落生态学。 永久性牧场占世界农业用地的70%左右。 多年生黑麦草和高羊茅在世界上改良的温带牧场中占主导地位。 感染这些农业草的内生真菌导致牛毛草中毒，黑麦草蹒跚和许多其他动物健康相关的损失，每年超过10亿美元。 谷物蚜虫是世界范围内最大和最重要的作物害虫和疾病媒介之一，特别是在温带地区。 因此，关于气候变化对这一系统的影响的具体预测将对我们长期管理这一重要的生态资源产生直接的实际利益，无论这个例子提供的普遍性程度如何，也无论这项工作将导致基础生态知识的进步。

Key environmental changes expected in Canada by the 2080s include: (i) levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide of between 525 and 810 parts per million; (ii) average summer temperature increases in the agricutural regions of 3 to 9 degrees C; and (iii) a summer rainfall deficit in these regions of between 0 and 90 mm of water.  Mitigation and adaptation policy-making requires scientific estimates of the impact of such changes.      The long-term objective (>10 years) of my research program is to be able to predict the likely changes to temperate grassland ecosystems that will arise as a result of climate change.  My interim objective (5-10 years) is to project the consequences of climate change for an 'exemplar system' comprising temperate pasture grasses (tall fescue and perennial ryegrass) their endophytic fungi (Neotyphodium coenophialum and N. lolii) and the cereal aphids (primarily Rhopalosiphum padi) that use these grasses as hosts.  My approach to meeting these objectives is to mix experiments and mathematical modeling, working from the level of biochemistry to population and community ecology.      Permanent pastures occupy some 70% of the world's agricultural lands.  Perennial ryegrass and tall fescue dominate the world's improved temperate pastures.  Endophytic fungi infecting these agricultural grasses cause fescue toxicosis, ryegrass staggers and a host of other animal health related losses amounting to more than $1Bn USD per annum.  Cereal aphids are one of the largest and most important groups of crop pests and disease vectors worldwide but particularly in temperate regions.  Therefore, specific predictions about the effects of climate change on this system will have direct practical benefits for our long-term management of this vital ecological resource, regardless of the degree of generality offered by this example or the advancements in basic ecological knowledge that will result from this work.